Cycling Stats
With the other thread 150 posts long, I thought I would start another one. “I'm suggesting if you want to claim that the increase in cycling at this point is simply down to more couriers in the evening, you should look at all the evening data, not just the last three years. With low numbers of counts there is plenty of sample error, so if you pick 2019 you can claim there's been a doubling of evening cycling and put that down to couriers. But for the previous four years evening counts were very comparable to 2021 - in fact 2017 had the highest evening count. While I've little doubt there's been an increase in couriers, it's simply not the case that the last two years can be explained as down to an increase in couriers. In fact reducing the sample error by taking the average of all the years before compared to the two years after the closure show there has been an increase in cycling throughout all four standard periods of the day, largest in the pm peak, then the inter peak, evening and am peak. You're only getting largely varying differences because you're slicing the data so thinly the sample error dominates.” I only chose 2019 and 2021 as they were the years you chose to highlight the increase on the High Road, so you can use just two years of data if it shows what you want, but the full data set has to be used if it doesn’t. Most people would consider that to be cherry picking your data. There have been increases in the 2021 data above the five year average (2015-19), however they are not evenly spread through the day. Between 7pm – 10pm the increase accounts for 8.6% of the daily increase. 6am to 10am is 13.9%, 10am to 4pm is 22.2% and 4pm to 7pm accounts for 55.3% of the daily increase. If you expand the time slot to 3.30pm to 7pm it accounts for 77% of the daily increase. Using all the data and a five year average it becomes even more obvious all of the increases in cycling are between 3.30 and 7pm. From 6am – 10am the five year average is 125.2, 143 were recorded in 2021, an increase of 18, the highest number recorded was 142 in 2018. From 8am to 9am the number recorded was well below the five year average. 54 recorded in 2021 and the five year average is 63.4. 10am – 3.30pm the five year average is 102.4, 103 were recorded in 2021, so for 5 and a half hours a day there is no change. From 7pm – 10pm the five year average is 49, 60 were recorded in 2021, an increase of 11, the highest number recorded was 61 in 2017. Then we have 3.30 - 7pm that has a 5 year average of 129.4 and a previous highest of 172, jumping up to 228. That is almost 100 above the five year average. The increase is unlikely to be commuters as they are not cycling to work in the morning, the same with school children. I think it is too late for leisure cyclist and too early for people coming home and going out to exercise. So who else might be cycling between 3.30 and 7pm that has caused the numbers to jump so significantly? It will be interesting to see the 2022 figures to see if the trends continue or if the increases (or decreases) become more balanced.
Colin Potter ● 1442d16 Comments ● 1440d