Is Labour Losing its Grip on Councils in Chiswick?

Polls no longer ruling out change of control in Hounslow and Ealing

The election is taking place on 7 May

May 3, 2026

In the early stages of the local election campaign, the two boroughs that cover the Chiswick area were assumed to be relatively safe for the sitting Labour administrations.

Over the two weeks new polling has emerged that has shaken that assumption and, while Labour is judged most likely to retain control in both Hounslow and Ealing, the chances of that not happening have moved to a decent outside bet.

The expected big increase in vote share for both Reform and the Greens has made this a five-party contest in both the local boroughs and across London which in turn has made the pollster’s job much more complicated. All five parties appear to have a realistic chance of winning seats in both boroughs for the first time. Accurate predictions of results where vote share is so fragmented and average winning margins will be significantly reduced are very difficult.

The day after the full candidate lists were declared, PollCheck put the chances of a control change in the borough of Hounslow at just 4%. Last week that had risen to 17% and, at the time of writing, this has now increased to 26% suggesting a one in four chance of what would originally have been a major upset. Although Labour is still considered the most likely victor, the party is expected to see a fall in its vote share of over a fifth and, on current projections, will have just a single digit seat majority on the council.

PollCheck’s predictions are based on combining the latest polls from third party organisations such as YouGov and Electoral Calculus with demographic information and historic voting patterns. It is the only polling company making available projections at a ward level. While the limitations of this approach, which misses out specific local factors and individual councillor performance, should be noted and the projections regarded as speculative, we are confident it is objective.

In Hounslow, Labour need 32 seats for a majority and middle range prediction is for them to win 39. Reform is projected to get a vote share of around 19.7% across the borough, below the 27% the latest national polls have it at and that could secure it around five seats. The Conservatives, the Greens and the Lib Dems are also anticipated to have vote shares in the teens and to pick up seats in areas of particular strength.

Projected leading party by vote share in each ward in Hounslow. Picture: PollCheck

Even allowing for the sharp fall in vote share, Labour is still projected to take 25 seats mainly in the Hounslow, Heston and Cranford areas, but also including Brentford East, with comfortable majorities.

None of the most marginal constituencies are in the Chiswick area. The most marginal seats include Isleworth, Brentford West, Syon & Brentford Lock, Hanworth Park, Osterley and Sprint Grove and Hanworth Village. If Labour can win seats in these wards, they are likely to be able to retain control. They would also need to take most or all of the seats in wards such as Feltham West, Hounslow South and Bedfont where they are currently projected to head the poll but are vulnerable to losing one or two of the seats to other parties.

Chiswick’s closest fought ward looks set to be Chiswick Riverside which has also been the scene of a spat between one of the Green candidates, Rick Rowe, and David Giles, father of Gabriella Giles the incumbent Conservative councillor. Mr Rowe has reported Mr Giles to the police alleging death threats, an accusation which has been strenuously denied by Mr Giles and the local Conservative party.

PollCheck shows the Conservatives ahead in this ward by 7.7 percentage points which is assumed to be enough to secure them two of the three seats. At the moment, the third is projected to be taken by the Greens but it should be noted that, while PollCheck does take account of traditional incumbency advantage, it does not take account of an individual councillor’s record over their last term. Cllr Amy Croft who took the third seat for Labour in 2022 is pointing to recently published figures which indicates she has been one of the top performing borough councillors in terms of case work handled.

Chiswick Riverside Candidates
Name	Party
Frank Beddington	Liberal Democrats
Nicholas Bellerophon	Liberal Democrats
James Nicholas Charrington	Liberal Democrats
Amy Croft	Labour
Royen Prince Fernandes	Reform UK
Gabriella Giles	Conservative
James Kerr	Reform UK
Trevor MacFarlane	Labour
George Radulski	Reform UK
Gurminder Randhawa	Labour
Rick Rowe	Green Party
Muddassir Syed	Green Party
Peter Thompson	Conservative
Jessika Toto-Moukouo	Conservative

The Conservative’s lead in Chiswick Gunnersbury is slightly more comfortable, currently projected at 12.6 percentage points. This largely depends on a fragmentation of votes for other parties and their candidates could be more vulnerable if a clear challenger emerged in the ward.

Chiswick Gunnersbury Candidates
Name	Party
Joanna Biddolph	Conservative
Aubrey Mark Charles Crawley	Green Party
Guy de Boursac	Liberal Democrats
Jon Elkon	Green Party
Vickram Grewal	Conservative
Paul Jonathan Halliwell	Liberal Democrats
Nik Hole	Liberal Democrats
Hanif Ahmad Khan	Labour
Ron Mushiso	Conservative
Sau Khuan Parkins	Reform UK
Maria Saroya	Labour
Joshua Stanton	Reform UK
Naeem Ulfat	Labour
Leanne Yu	Reform UK

Chiswick Homefields, the ward formerly represented by veteran councillors, John Todd and Gerard McGregor, is the safest one in the borough for the Tories, who have a projected lead of 17.9 percentage points. This is a change from previous polling which earlier had Chiswick Gunnersbury as being expected to be the one the Conservatives would win most easily.

Chiswick Homefields Candidates
Name	Party
Mary Brown	Reform UK
Helen Cross	Liberal Democrats
Michael Denniss	Conservative
Leigh Gareth Edwards	Liberal Democrats
Jack Emsley	Conservative
Aisha Farah	Labour
Linden Grigg	Conservative
Maya Devi Hamlyn	Green Party
Arthur Brian Haynes	Liberal Democrats
Claire Yue Li	Green Party
David Manson	Reform UK
Nick Roach	Reform UK
Fatima Tayyab	Labour
Mohammed Umair	Labour

Wards in Hounslow Ranked in Reverse Order of Projected Margin of Victory

Ward

Winner

Margin
(pp)

Seats

Lab

Con

Green

Ref

Others

Isleworth

LD/Lab

0.6

30.3

3.2

30.8

13.0

20.5

2.3

Brentford West

Lab/Green

0.9

29.2

11.0

3.7

28.3

23.0

4.8

Syon & Brentford Lock

Ind/Lab

3.0

32.9

10.1

9.0

5.5

6.6

35.9

Hanworth Park

Ref/Lab

3.2

23.4

19.1

13.9

17.0

26.6

0.0

Osterley & Spring Grove

Lab?LD

3.8

29.7

14.6

25.9

11.2

18.6

0.0

Feltham North

Con/Ref

4.9

21.2

29.4

9.9

10.9

24.5

4.1

Hanworth Village

Lab/Ref

5.8

31.9

20.4

15.7

5.9

26.1

0.0

Chiswick Riverside

Con/Green

7.7

8.2

30.7

21.6

23.0

16.4

0.0

Feltham West

Lab/Ref

8.3

31.7

18.4

9.7

11.2

23.4

5.7

Hounslow South

Lab/LD

8.8

31.7

11.3

22.9

11.8

20.2

2.1

Bedfont

Lab/Ref

9.7

33.2

22.0

11.1

10.3

23.5

0.0

Chiswick Gunnersbury

Con

12.6

9.1

34.8

22.1

19.4

14.6

0.0

Hounslow Heath

Lab

13.0

35.3

7.9

22.3

11.8

20.4

2.3

Hounslow West

Lab

13.2

38.3

9.0

14.1

11.3

25.0

2.3

Hounslow East

Lab

13.8

33.8

18.8

10.9

20.0

16.5

0.0

Cranford

Lab

17.1

46.4

29.3

5.2

3.4

15.8

0.0

Chiswick Homefields

Con

17.9

7.4

37.8

19.1

19.9

15.8

0.0

Heston East

Lab

21.5

41.0

16.6

11.8

11.0

19.6

0.0

Heston Central

Lab

21.9

43.6

6.2

16.4

12.2

21.7

0.0

Heston West

Lab

23.6

42.0

11.5

12.2

5.8

18.3

10.3

Hounslow Central

Lab

24.9

41.6

14.9

13.7

13.2

16.7

0.0

Brentford East

Lab

31.2

52.0

12.1

7.5

7.6

20.8

0.0

Source: PollCheck

The shift in expected voting patterns in Ealing borough is very similar to Hounslow.

Back in 2022, Labour won a commanding 57 seats, with six going to the Lib Dems and five to the Conservatives. But as voters prepare to return to the polls this week, the political landscape looks considerably less settled and a major change to the politic map seems assured.

Despite Keir Starmer's national landslide in the 2024 General Election, each of Ealing's three Labour MPs lost vote share. The main beneficiaries were the Greens, with a smaller slice going to Reform.

That trend has continued in polling since. YouGov's MRP model for the 2026 London borough elections now places Ealing among the most contested boroughs in the capital, grouping it with a set of inner London councils where Labour and the Greens are within five points of each other.

PollCheck's ward-level modelling currently projects Labour falling from 57 seats to around 40, within a possible range of 35 to 44. The model currently puts the probability of a change of council control at 20% — a result that would have seemed almost unthinkable four years ago. Labour is projected to hold Ealing Council, but with a significantly reduced majority.

As with Hounslow, these projections must be treated with considerable caution. Ward-level modelling combines national polling data with demographic assumptions but cannot capture the impact of local issues, individual candidate performance, or the particular dynamics of multi-member first-past-the-post contests. In the most marginal wards, the difference between winning and losing may come down to fewer than a hundred votes — making confident predictions impossible.

Wards in Ealing Ranked in Reverse Order of Projected Margin of Victory

Ward

Winner

Margin
(pp)

Seats

Lab

Con

Green

Ref

Others

Walpole

Green/LD

0.5

10.3

15.9

26.6

27.0

12.6

7.6

North Hanwell

Green/Lab

2.2

31.5

6.3

11.1

33.7

16.0

1.3

East Acton

Lab/Green

4.3

36.0

6.7

8.9

31.7

15.6

1.2

Ealing Broadway

Green/Con

4.6

7.0

29.6

17.4

34.3

9.0

2.8

North Acton

Green/Lab

6.0

27.7

7.0

12.0

33.7

16.9

2.7

Pitshanger

Green/Ref

7.9

17.0

13.8

17.6

29.7

21.8

0.1

Northfield

Green/Con

8.2

12.9

21.5

14.0

29.7

17.1

4.8

Central Greenford

Lab/Green

9.1

33.7

12.2

9.6

24.5

20.0

0.0

Ealing Common

12.0

7.1

42.7

30.7

12.5

0.0

North Greenford

Lab

20.7

39.5

13.0

14.2

18.8

14.4

0.0

Northolt Mandeville

Lab

21.4

46.3

24.9

7.3

9.4

12.1

0.0

Perivale

Lab

22.0

42.1

14.5

14.0

8.3

20.1

1.0

Hanger Hill

24.3

8.9

24.9

49.3

11.8

4.1

1.0

South Acton

Lab

25.2

45.1

12.4

10.4

19.9

8.6

3.6

Greenford Broadway

Lab

25.9

44.9

8.6

10.0

19.0

16.3

1.2

Hanwell Broadway

Green

28.3

18.9

5.1

13.1

47.3

15.6

0.0

Lady Margaret

Lab

30.0

49.3

6.1

11.6

19.4

12.2

1.4

Dormers Wells

Lab

31.3

50.1

4.9

10.8

18.8

11.1

4.3

Southfield

32.2

5.0

4.2

54.0

21.8

14.5

0.5

Northolt West End

Lab

34.6

52.8

3.8

16.0

9.3

18.2

0.0

Southall Broadway

Lab

35.2

49.1

8.8

9.4

10.0

13.8

8.9

Norwood Green

Lab

39.1

52.4

2.9

13.3

10.1

10.6

Southall West

Lab

40.1

54.1

7.8

8.6

10.9

14.0

4.6

Southall Green

Lab

45.0

59.5

4.8

8.5

6.3

14.6

6.3

Source: PollCheck

With 70 councillors elected across the borough, Labour needs 36 seats to retain overall control. The party's position in its safest wards — concentrated largely in Southall — appears secure, with projected margins of victory well above 20 percentage points. That gives Labour a base of around 30 seats it should be able to count on leaving it with just six to win elsewhere.

Of the crucial battlegrounds, East Acton and Central Greenford are among the wards to watch: current projections suggest Labour is likely to take two of the three seats in each, but a clean sweep in both would go a long way to securing an overall majority, while losing every seat in these wards would leave the party scrambling. North Hanwell presents a different challenge, where the Greens are currently projected to be marginally ahead.

The Ealing ward which includes parts of Chiswick, Southfield, is currently projected to be held comfortably by the sitting Liberal Democrat councillors. These include the party's leader, Gary Malcolm, the official leader of the opposition. While his group is expected to make gains, the Greens are challenging in many of its target wards so, if Labour does lose control, it may be a coalition adminstration that replaces it in power.

Southfield Candidates
Name	Party
Ayomilekan Jonathan Adegunwa	Labour
Chris Brown	Conservative
Gary Busuttil	Liberal Democrat
Darryll Coates	Conservative
Laura Darwish	Green Party
Charlotte Duthie	Conservative
Dean Ricky Gilligan	Labour
Elaine Jelly	Reform UK
Mike Landon	Green Party
Gary Malcolm	Liberal Democrat
Matthew Martin	Reform UK
Jeannie Adetokunbo Okikiolu	Labour
Helen Katherine Campbell Pattison	Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition
Andrew Steed	Liberal Democrat
Tom Vanson	Reform UK

London-wide polls given slightly different predictions to those provided by PollCheck althought they do not offer ward level projections. The JL Partners / LSE - London Local Elections MRP poll was taken between 17-27 April and combined an online panel of over 2,000 respondents with MRP analysis. It was used to determine the vote leader in each borough and put the Greens less than a percentage point ahead of Labour in Ealing with 26% with Labour getting the most votes in Hounslow at 30% with the Conservatives closest to them with 20.2% vote share.

MRP in polling means Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification a statistical modelling technique used to estimate local-level opinion from large national samples.

The YouGov/Politico poll which was taken between 27 March and 21 April was based on 4,548 interviews with 1,520 incorporated into the final model. This concluded that Labour would get 29% in Ealing and 25% in Hounslow, the largest vote share of any party. The Greens were put in second place by 3 percentage points in Ealing and 2 in Hounslow.

Across the country, PolCcheck is predicting a grim election night for Labour with the number of councillors projected to halve with more than a thousand losing their seats. The Conservatives are also expected to see big losses with the number of councillor from that party falling from 1,230 to just over 700. The big gainers are projected to be Reform which could see its current representation of 69 councillors increase to over 1,400 and the Greens who could see a rise from 183 to 689.

The elections will take place on Thursday 7 May.

Polling stations will open from 7am until 10pm and friendly polling station staff will be on hand throughout the day to support voters with any accessibility needs.

Those voting in person, must remember to bring photo ID to vote. A full list of Accepted photo ID is listed on the Electoral Commission website.  

Poll cards are not needed to vote, but they show the voter’s polling station address. This is useful as some polling stations have changed since the last election. Voters can check their polling station location, on the Hounslow Council website by entering their postcode. You can also find your polling station on the Ealing Council website.

Presenting a polling card can also help to make the voting process quicker and reduce waiting times.

Postal voters in Hounslow who want to hand deliver their completed postal votes can do so at the main reception in Hounslow House, TW3 3EB, or at a polling station in their ward, before 10pm on Thursday, 7 May.  

Ealing Council has put measures in place to support voters with accessibility needs, including wheelchair ramps, low-level polling booths, large-print ballot papers and other equipment to support deaf and partially sighted/blind voters. If you need additional support to vote, or would like more information, contact the council’s elections team on 020 8825 7777 (9am–5pm, weekdays) or email elections@ealing.gov.uk.

Like Reading Articles Like This? Help Us Produce More

This site remains committed to providing local community news and public interest journalism.

Articles such as the one above are integral to what we do. We aim to feature as much as possible on local societies, charities based in the area, fundraising efforts by residents, community-based initiatives and even helping people find missing pets.

We've always done that and won't be changing, in fact we'd like to do more.

However, the readership that these stories generates is often below that needed to cover the cost of producing them. Our financial resources are limited and the local media environment is intensely competitive so there is a constraint on what we can do.

We are therefore asking our readers to consider offering financial support to these efforts. Any money given will help support community and public interest news and the expansion of our coverage in this area.

A suggested monthly payment is £8 but we would be grateful for any amount for instance if you think this site offers the equivalent value of a subscription to a daily printed newspaper you may wish to consider £20 per month. If neither of these amounts is suitable for you then contact info@neighbournet.com and we can set up an alternative. All payments are made through a secure web site.

One-off donations are also appreciated. Choose The Amount You Wish To Contribute.

If you do support us in this way we'd be interested to hear what kind of articles you would like to see more of on the site – send your suggestions to the editor.

For businesses we offer the chance to be a corporate sponsor of community content on the site. For £30 plus VAT per month you will be the designated sponsor of at least one article a month with your logo appearing if supplied. If there is a specific community group or initiative you'd like to support we can make sure your sponsorship is featured on related content for a one off payment of £50 plus VAT. All payments are made through a secure web site.

Is Labour Losing its Grip on Councils in Chiswick?

Polls no longer ruling out change of control in Hounslow and Ealing

Related links