Emissions Forecasts 'Don't Add Up'

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Council leaders call for audit of government forecasts

Council leaders have called for an audit of official government forecasts on aviation emissions after global figures published by international regulators showed a doubling over the next 20 years.

The Department for Transport recently downgraded its estimate of aviation emissions to 60.3 million tonnes by 2050. This compares with a previous forecast in 2004 of 106.8 million tonnes and a DEFRA estimate in 2006 of 165.5 million tonnes.

Yet figures obtained by the Aviation Environment Federation (AEF) show that US regulators expect a doubling in global aviation emissions in the years to 2025. These compare 2005 levels of 607 million tonnes on CO2 with an expected 2025 figure of 1,229 million.

Wandsworth Council leader Edward Lister speaking on behalf of the 2M Group said:

"The UK Government is asking us to believe that carbon emissions from aviation will fall while data published by the international regulators show the opposite.

"Ministers are putting their faith in emissions trading as the way to slow growth after 2030. The problem is not even the Government knows which figures they want to use.

"But whether it is 60 million, 106 million or 165 million tonnes of CO2 from aviation this has to be contained within an overall carbon budget in 2050 of 236 million tonnes. The numbers simply do not add up. It's hard to see how every other sector of industry can make the reductions needed to allow aviation to go on expanding.

"The 2M Group is backing calls for an independent audit of all these conflicting government forecasts. We also want to see a new carbon map which shows just how emissions are expected to fall in each sector in the years leading up to 2050."

The Government is committed to a 60 per cent reduction in total carbon emissions by 2050 - leading to a total figure from all sources of 236 million tonnes. The Stern Report favoured a bigger cut of 80 per cent which would bring the target down to 118 million tonnes.

The figures were published by AEF and are available at www.aef.org.uk The latest DfT down-grading of future emissions levels was contained in the UK Air Passenger Demand and CO2 Forecasts document (November 2007).
                                                   

May 6, 2008