Putney Looks Safe for Tories Despite Labour Surge
Party members say 'opportunity missed' to make shock gain
With the latest polls showing a big reduction in the Conservatives lead nationally and the Labour party 17 points ahead in London there has been a reassessment of the likely result for many seats in the capital.
However, even the polls showing the biggest swing to Labour are not anticipating that Education Secretary Justine Greening will lose her seat in Putney on 8 June.
The YouGov poll which on a seat by seat basis is predicting that the Conservatives will not achieve an overall majority still rates the Putney constituency as ‘likely Conservative.’
Ashcroft Polls which is predicting a better performance from the Conservatives overall rates them winning in Putney as a 94% chance. However their detailed analysis of the constituency shows that there are an unusually high level of ‘resistors’ among the local electorate. These are people who voted Remain and want to reverse the result as opposed to ‘accepter’s who voted Remain but accept the outcome. At 42% the proportion of resistors is one of the highest in the country in Putney.
Paddy Power is quoting odds of 50-1 on for Justine Greening to retain her seat with 18-1 against being offered on Neeraj Patil winning.
Some Labour party members have described Putney as a major opportunity missed claiming that there has been no clear message given on Brexit. One said to us, ‘the question I am most often asked is where our candidate stands on leaving the EU and I don’t really know the answer’.
YouGov rate nearby constituencies as a ‘tossup’ with no call being made in Battersea between Conservative and Labour. A Labour win there would be a major surprise. In Richmond Park the call is also 50-50 between Tory Zac Goldsmith and Sarah Olney who won the seat recently for the Liberal Democrats.
2017 Candidates in Putney
Ben Fletcher - Green Party
Justine Greening - Conservative Party
Ryan Mercer - Liberal Democrats
Neeraj Patil - Labour Party
Lotta Quizeen - Independent
Patricia Ward - UK Independence Party (UKIP)
June 2, 2017