Forum Topic

It’s not my invention, Nigel. Vehicles or cars per capita is used extensively in transport research as a standard measure to allow comparisons between countries.There is a very interesting and relevant highly cited paper with the same author that further counters some of the claims made on this topic.Men Shape a Downward Trend in Car Use among Young Adults-Evidence from Six Industrialized CountriesThis paper investigates trends in the travel behaviour of young adults in Germany, France, Great Britain, Japan, Norway, and the USA over the past few decades with a focus on car availability and car travel. The trend analysis relies on micro-data from over 20 National Travel Surveys from the study countries dating back to the mid-1970s. The analysis of the survey data is supplemented by official statistics on licence holding. On this basis, this paper compiles a body of evidence for changes in mobility patterns among young adults in industrialized countries over the past few decades. The findings indicate that since the turn of the millennium, access to cars, measured in terms of drivers' licences and household car ownership, has decreased in most study countries-especially for men. Moreover, average daily car travel distance has decreased in most study countries, again especially for men. In France, Japan, and most significantly in the USA, the decrease in car travel has led to a reduction in total everyday travel by young travellers. In Great Britain, the decline in car travel was partly, and in Germany fully, compensated by an increased use of alternative modes of transport.doi:10.1080/01441647.2012.736426

Tom Pike ● 205d

As I have said the Swansea research is obviously flawed - at least based on how it was reported in the GCN video, let me explain why.The methodology as stated by the Swansea Professor was that they asked 2000 people a series of questions and they were wording one question in relation to cars and then effectively the same question but about something else to show people were predisposed to support car/car use.The problem with that methodology, as highlighted in the Yes Prime Minister clip I referred to, is it all depends on how you word the questions.So lets us look at the wording of the very first question (and its counterpart) referred to in the video:(Ai) If someone leaves the car in the street and it gets stolen, it's their own fault for leaving it there and police shouldn't be expected to act(Aii) If someone leaves their belongings in the street and they gets stolen, it's their own fault for leaving them there and police shouldn't be expected to actThe problem with that question is that it does not address the obvious assumptions that many people, probably most would make about both the above questions: people would assume the car was locked (the question does not specify) and also assume that the "belongings" were not on the street  securely locked in a very large and heavy container.  Then there is the fact that the questions do not address the implicit assumption that the belonging are likely to have relatively little intrinsic value (unlike a car) because we have all seen belonging left out on the street, often because the owner actually wants people to take them away and use them.So, assuming that the GCN reporting correctly reflects the actual research, my conclusion is that the first pair of questions have been worded to get the answer the researchers wanted.Now lets move onto the second pair of questions discussed in the video:(Ci) Risk is a natural part of driving and anyone driving has to accept they could be seriously injured(Cii) Risk is a natural part of working and anyone working has to accept that they could be seriously injuredAgain based on the reporting in the GCN video the 2 questions are false equivalents because they do not take into account that the people asked may well have pre-exiting assumptions/biases/understandings unrelated to car use.  We have had 2 centuries of legislation on health and safety at work. Deaths at work are very rare in the UK, last year I could find figures for there were 87 such deaths (compared to almost 1700 deaths via road accident of which nearly 800 were car occupants). There is also the fact that over 80% of people work in the service sector which is far safer than other sectors so the vast majority of people questioned would never have known of someone who was killed in a workplace accident. So rather than people being biased in favour of cars what we have is a situation where people have been told pretty much from the day they started work that a death at work was not acceptable, people are reading into the question their own biases and those biases may having nothing to do with cars or may fact be in favour of cars - the GCN reporting simply jumps to the conclusion that it is because we are biased in favour of the car without even contemplating that there might be another explanation.I suspect you would have got a completely different outcome had the questions been:(Ci) risk is an inherent part of driving therefore it is perfectly acceptable not to wear a seatbelt(Cii) risk is an inherent part of operating dangerous fast moving equipment at work (such as lathes, metal presses and similar) therefore it is perfectly acceptable to remove any safety features from that equipment.I am willing to bet the vast majority of people would answer both those questions the same way - that it is not acceptable.That brings me neatly back to the Yes Prime minister clip. when doing a survey the answers you get depends on the questions you ask

Justin Stephenson ● 206d