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The videos purporting to show Biden apparently wandering off at key moments have been all thoroughly debunked as carefully edited out of context footage. The most widely shared one excluded him walking away from the other heads of state at the D-Day celebrations to talk to a US paratrooper who had just participated in a display.You are also misrepresenting the relationship between the Bidens. She may appear protective of him but that isn't outside the norm of what you would expect from a loving couple.There are lots of instances of Trump tripping and falling and he has significant difficulty dealing with ramps. As for wandering off when meeting world leaders, how can you possibly have forgotten what he did to The Queen during his highly embarrassing state visit here.The relationship between Trump and Melania is purely transactional with her reportedly being paid huge sums not to leave him before the election and only agreeing to do a small number of public appearances. Even then she fails to hide her utter disgust for him. I would assume any wife would if her husband slept with a porn star when she was pregnant.The problem your guy has that, impaired as Joe Biden may have been, on any measure Trump is worse. Whereas you can offer us self-described body language experts who believe Biden might have Parkinson's (which the White House Medical staff have confirmed is absolutely not the case), actual Harvard medical professors say they see clear signs of dementia with Trump. https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-dementia-evidence-overwhelming-top-psychiatrist-1881247

Mark Evans ● 214d

That is more nonsense I'm afraid. Doctors are subject to ethical standards that 'body language experts' are not. They would risk losing their licence if they knowingly made a public statement that was false. Biden does not have Parkinsons.The Reagan situation was very different. When his symptoms became apparent, he was a lame duck president approaching the end of his second term. Even the Democrats accepted that he should be allowed the opportunity to see out his last months with some dignity.It is very telling that the same low bar you set for your diagnosis that Biden has dementia is discarded when you look at Trump. Yes, Trump has always sounded demented because of his ideas and his stupidity but there are new symptoms over the last few years. You say Biden has dementia because he struggles to read from a teleprompt, can mumble incoherently and mixes people's names up. Yet these are things Trump does times two. While Biden is treated by the broader White House medical team who are chosen on the basis of competence, Trump relies on Ronny Jackson, a man with a very checkered personal history, who has been found drunk on duty and got into a fight with a state trooper when he refused to let an ambulance pass at a rodeo to treat an injured girl. Unlike the doctors Biden is treated by, there is no way Jackson, who owes his position and probably his continued ability to practice to Trump, would ever disclose a finding of cognitive decline. The irony here is that Trump called him Ronny Johnson when he was claiming that he had been given the all clear on signs of dementia. The Democrats are set to go hard on this from now on and it should help to erode Trump's lead. At the moment they are able to be keep him away from a microphone but the closer the race gets the more evidence we will see of his decline.

Mark Evans ● 216d

The last few posts encapsulate very well why this move by the Democrats isn't necessarily the great step forward people seem to think it is this morning. The Republicans, aided by a number of bad actors from overseas, have taken the undeniable fact that Biden was age impaired and convinced a large number of people that he is suffering from dementia. I've had to deal with a loved one who has been cursed in this way and I can see this isn't true having taken the time to see more extended coverage of him in action rather than clips carefully selected to push a story line. However, these days something can be come a widely accepted view if there are enough people with an over estimate of the value of their opinions combined with an unwillingness to do a bit of basic research. The Republicans will now identify a weakness of Kamala Harris. This once again will not be totally imaginary but it will be magnified to such an extent that the basic truth of the matter is left behind. They will find willing accomplices in doing this in the same sort of people who 'knew' Biden had dementia. The question people need to ask today is 'Is Kamala Harris a better candidate than Hilary Clinton?' Politico suggests that new internal polling by the Democrats was what persuaded Joe Biden to step aside. However, what is less clear is whether or not these polls show Harris outperforming Biden in the swing states. In the public polls released after the assassination attempt she was doing worse than Biden in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin as well as Georgia surprisingly. Hilary lost all these states in 2016 and so there is a lot of work to do for the Democrats and not enough in Kamal Harris's previous performance to mean that it can be taken for granted to win. All we can really do is sit back and pray or wish really hard that she is elected and perhaps slap down Trump's useful idiots when they make their appearance on this forum.

Francis Rowe ● 217d

Not true. The small number of senior Democrats that have openly said he should step down have not said that he is incapable of doing the job. They have said that a younger candidate (who they believe they will get office with) might be able to do it better and be more likely to beat Trump which is a very different thing.  The problem is that the numbers that we have do not necessarily confirm this. If you rule out Kamala then you are left with Newsom and Whitmer. Newsom gives a boost of about 2 percentage points in national polls, Whitmer about one. The polls that really matter are the swing state ones and Californian Newsom isn't likely to resonate in the rust belt. Whitmer might be better in these states and will deliver Michigan but Biden was likely to win that anyway. I'm not hearing other candidates' names being talked about but it is unlikely at this stage a total unknown will emerge. A marginal lead now for these alternative candidates is not going to be helped by a likely messy contest if it comes to that. Biden is old and appears frail at times and the Trump campaign can rely on people like you to amplify that but they will introduce alternative attack lines on Newsom and Whitmer that you will probably fall for as well. Campaign finance is also a huge issue Biden/Harris has a massive war chest, far greater than Trump's,  that it hasn't really started to spend but this money is not transferable to a new candidate who will be starting from scratch and will probably be outspent by Trump. As I have said, the support for Biden among people that matter such as Pelosi, Schumer and Obama seems lukewarm at the moment and it maybe they see polls that show the situation as being more desperate than the public polls. In which case we will probably get some sort of announcement very soon. However, based on the information we can see, objectively Biden seems like the best of a range of poor options and you are offering nothing to counter that other than a series of ranty declamations that are verifiably untrue.

Francis Rowe ● 220d

What is the basis for your view that Biden is unlikely to win?  The first polls showing the impact of the Trump assassination attempt are out and not surprisingly he has had a bit of a surge. The argument against Biden from within the Democratic party is not that he is incompetent or incapable as the senior party figures see him on a daily basis and know it is not true. If it was the case they would just say so and it would be game over as politics is a dirty business. The argument for ditching him is that another candidate could do better. At this stage the path to getting a candidate other than Kamala Harris is very tricky and you've seen explanations as to why the other options are not silver bullets either. To simplify things let's just assume that whoever wins Pennsylvania becomes president as the scenario in which that doesn't happen is unlikely. The latest polls for that state are at the top and they show Trump now has a significant lead. However most importantly the lead is bigger over Harris than Biden therefore they completely undercut the case to ditch Biden. Although these numbers look very gloomy, you have to assume that the assassination boost won't last and that Biden is still doing okay even though he is currently being undermined by members of his own party.  As I've said previously even if Biden is behind on the head to head in these swing states he could still win as he is more likely to gain people telling pollsters they support Kennedy or Stein when it comes to actual voting. The factions moving against Biden have to move immediately or back off but these polls do not support their case. Yes they show Biden trailing but the path to victory is even narrower with the alternatives. Perhaps there is other internal polling we don't see which presents a more gloomy picture and no poll is going to show anything other than right now Biden is second favourite but, objectively based on what we can see, he remains the best practical option to beat Trump.



Francis Rowe ● 220d

Overnight the situation seems to be developing further with more of the off-the-record non-attributable briefing you describe by Democrats. Adam Schiff is close to Gavin Newsom so a California faction seems to be developing. Nancy Pelosi was also elected for a California district so maybe she is backing whatever they are planning. The problem is that the narrative that the debate catastrophe has caused Biden to slump in the polls is not coming true. The latest one has him back in the lead in Wisconsin and within the margin of error in Pennsylvania and Michigan. Newsom is slick and dynamic and on the centre right of the party but it will be very easy for Trump to present him as a perma-tanned woke west coast liberal with zero interest or understanding of the needs of blue collar workers. Would he outperform Biden in the key swing states? Maybe the Democrats see polling numbers that we don't or maybe this is all court intrigue with people plotting but nobody willing to actually yield the knife in case the king survives. Gretchen Whitmer may also not be the silver bullet that some people say she is if this article in Forbes is to be believed — https://www.forbes.com/sites/patrickgleason/2024/07/16/gretchen-whitmers-record-would-be-hard-to-sell-to-national-audience/ Biden is probably going to see a dip in support in the next set of polls to be released but that will be because of the assassination attempt which he can sensibly argue would have affected any candidate. Even so the clock is clicking on the various factions who want him out so they have to strike soon. In the meantime one or two things are going right for Biden. The VP pick highlights the abortion issue which is a plus for Democrats in the swing states, there is greater awareness of Project 2025 and its sheer craziness, Trump continues to be Trump in failing to contact the family of the firefighter who died and the RNC is putting the 'basket of deplorables' on full show. There are a number of other things that can go right for Biden over the next few months which are not beyond the realms of wishful thinking — F16s could turn the tide in Ukraine, Israel might stop the large scale killing of people in Gaza, the Fed might cut interest rates and Trump, after the current uncharacteristic lull, will ramp up the crazy again.  None of us know the full story here but from the outside the argument that Biden can't win is unconvincing and the main thing that would undermine his chances is lukewarm support from within the party. If there is a move to get rid of him, it needs to be quick and clean and happen before the end of the month.




Francis Rowe ● 221d

Felicity, I don't think you are going to persuade Steve Taylor to change his mind by asking him to consider actual evidence. In his view, his opinions are immutable facts.Biden isn't senile or incapable and anyone could be made to look like a gibbering idiot by a careful selection of clips. In fact it is Biden's continuing capacity to do the job that is part of the problem. If there was any evidence of serious cognitive decline that could never be kept a secret but what can't be hidden is that he is old and getting older.The Democrats have been panicking since the beginning of the year due to the polls and calls to replace Biden are not new. This election really boils down to three states - Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan - the Blue Wall. It was these that Hilary lost and it was these that Biden won back. It was supposed to be his superpower that he appealed to the working class voters of the rust belt.However, since the beginning of the year he has been trailing Trump in these three states and it is this that is causing the Democrats to lose their nerve.The polls since the disastrous poll don't seem to have moved much which is an indication that most Americans have made up their minds - why would they have not given the starkness of the choice?Changing candidates at this stage is tricky. The easiest option would be to switch to the Vice President as that would mean that campaign donations could still be used. Anyone else would start with an empty war chest because the money can't be just transferred to a different campaign.We do have recent polling for key swing States which suggest a Kamala Harris could give a boost of about 1% in the Blue Wall. However, whether that sticks when she is in the spotlight is debatable. She is from California and therefore lacks the local contacts and appeal in the Blue Wall that Biden provides and she performed poorly in her bid for the Democratic nomination.The most widely touted other option Gavin Newsom is also from California and therefore may also struggle to win back votes in the Blue Wall. The one candidate that could tick this particular box is Gretchen Whitmer, the Governor of Michigan. However, like any new candidate she would have to go through a selection process which would mean she would barely in place before the voting started.You therefore have to go back to Biden as the most likely candidate. An important factor to consider is that although he is behind Trump in the three key states, Trump doesn't have 50% support. It is very probably that a lot of people who say they would vote for Robert Kennedy and Jill Stein would switch to Biden if they were in one of the swing states and it was clear that they had the power to determine who was to be president.It may well be to the Democrats advantage to be behind in the polls at this point. Now that a Republican victory is widely assumed, people will need to consider what they will do with power and the fact that Trump is surrounded by extremist headbangers will become apparent.Also, it has to be acknowledged that the economy has been well managed under Biden and he has delivered on jobs and growth. One thing that is stopping the average American appreciating the benefits of that interest rates have not been cut. The latest inflation number dipped under 3% and was better than expectations. One rate cut if not two could happen before the election and that will transform perceptions of Biden's economic management.At this point, senior Democrats seem unwilling to go all in with Biden. He has had support from Obama and Pelosi but it came with qualifications. If Biden was genuinely incapable it would a straightforward matter to remove him. The problem with him is that his path to victory is narrow but that isn't necessarily solved by a new candidate. The Democrats may need to hold their nerve and go all in with a candidate who maybe flawed but remains their best bet.

Francis Rowe ● 222d

As has been pointed out on this thread already, even the most accomplished of public speakers will occasionally misspeak. Over the course of a gruelling series of meetings and public events including an hour long press conference, Biden made two gaffes, one flipping the names of Kamala Harris and Trump and one doing the same with Putin and Zelensky which he immediately corrected. This seems to me thin evidence of a serious decline in faculties, if I got through a similar schedule with such a small number of errors I would call it a win and I am more than half Biden's age.The evidence is clearly that for a man of his age Biden is functioning okay. You think he is deteriorating fast because you aren't looking beyond the carefully selected clips from his opponents posted on social media which suggest he is ga-ga.The 'concern' that you hear is probably from media commentators wanting to stir up a story and Democratic rivals smelling blood leaking to the press. The problem here is that Biden is not delivering in the swing states where he  is behind in the polls but that has been an issue since the beginning of the year. One national poll taken since the debate put him ahead but we don't know what the impact will be in places like Pennsylvania and Michigan which are all that really matter. It was Biden's ability to deliver the Democrats these states and some are talking about removing him because he is not doing that. The problem is there is no good reason to believe an alternative candidate would either.

Felicity Caborn ● 226d

This is very poor reporting by the BBC. Biden spoke at a press conference for nearly an hour answering a range of questions in detail with authority including to BBC reporters. ITV took a very similar stance this morning, ignoring the full context to focus on what people on social media were talking about.It is a falsehood to describe him as senile and this would be immediately apparent to anyone who watched the whole press conference. The problem is that most people can't be bothered to do so and don't like their prejudices to be challenged by facts.The focus on the two times he misspoke is just designed to get clicks and not inform the viewer. Biden immediately corrected himself when he mixed up the name of Zelensky and Putin. Two things worth considering, anybody speaking for an extended period will make errors and Biden was notorious for gaffes even when he was a relatively young man.Biden is old and isn't getting any younger but in terms of cognitive decline there is far more evidence that Trump is impaired than Biden.His performance in the debate was a train crash and doubly disastrous because it distracted from what Trump was saying. Obviously Biden should be ditched as a candidate if he isn't capable of beating Trump and there is a better option available. The problem here is that there is no good reason to believe a switch would work. Kamala Harris's polling is not good and you can't switch campaign donations to a new candidate. Other options such as Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer come with their own issues and aren't necessarily the silver bullet to defeat Trump. The practical reality is that the Democrats probably only now have a choice between Harris and Biden. Therefore a portrayal of Biden as a stubborn old man clinging to office is also probably a falsehood. He knows he probably still remains the best option to beat Trump despite all the set backs.It is alarming how this is being covered in the media. This is a hugely important issue and while I don't want to tell anyone how to think, before expressing a strong view watch the full press conference and if you still think this is the performance of a man senile and unfit for office fair enough. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1219AhDEA4E

Mark Evans ● 227d