Forum Topic

Is the TfL data differentiating between cyclists on the High Road using C9 and not using C9? If I recall previous discussions a previous dataset suggested that half of all cyclists were on the road which is clearly erroneous but it did raise a question mark over the numbers that was never satisfactorily answered.Nobody sensible is suggesting that C9 is not used and there probably has been a growth in numbers overall maybe even more than London as a whole over the same period. It is however very difficult to isolate the effect of the Cycleway - judging by the mornings there hasn't been a significant boost to commuting by bike but is that down to slower journey times or changing work patterns? How much of the rise is due to delivery cyclists?There has clearly been a massive rise in leisure cycling over the weekend so I think we should double down on that. The amount of money needed to extend the Santander bike scheme to Chiswick would be a fraction of the overall cost of C9 and it makes no sense not to reinforce the investment.  If you had docking stations down to Kew Bridge it could make a significant different to the beleagured local economy of Strand on the Green.Whatever either side of the argument says, there isn't decisive data either way to prove that C9 is a good thing or a bad thing. The picture with regard to usage, collisions, congestion, bus journey times and pollution remains confused because no effort was made to collect base data for comparison because it was implemented in a hurry.In the absence of a killer argument against it, C9 is here to stay so people's efforts would be better spent looking at ways to improve it rather than get it scrapped.

Jeremy Parkinson ● 1348d

I don't want to side-track this discussion into about about Chiswick's 'success' but it would be worth anyone with a sanguine view of High Street trade at the moment to talk to some local retailers. The environment is incredibly tough and businesses are closing with many more just about hanging on. Units are being filled when this happens but often only on the basis of very generous initial rents to allow the concept to be tested.Going back to the cyclist counts, I haven't looked at this methodically but from the comparable numbers I have seen suggest that the daily average has risen since pre-Covid, pre-C9, pre-delivery by bike boom from about 2,200 to 2,800. This is a good number and probably above the London average but I don't think we can reach any firm conclusions without a deeper analysis. For instance, there has also been a significant reduction in bus services during this period - what impact has that had? Just how important have delivery services been to the rise (Chipotle and Five Guys for instance seem to be mainly be based on online ordering and there is a constant stream of bikes going from both premises)? What is the impact of WFH - does it boost or reduce cycling on the High Road?If someone could publish the list of data available on this, with links and unadulterated, then it would allow me and others to have a proper look. However, I would caution that when I have done this before, the data generally doesn't confirm what those who are most pro- or anti- the cycleway claims it does.

Jeremy Parkinson ● 1347d

Thanks for the links Tom, while the use of data is quite interesting I'm not sure it can be used to draw conclusions about the relative health of different high streets.Chiswick is one of the most desirable main drags outside central London with a high footfall and wealthy populace. It is not like a depressed northern town and is unlikely to see that many vacancies even in the worst economic circumstances. That is reflected in rents that continue to be high.Where there are vacant units that can, as you point out, be due to a greedy landlord or some issue with the unit such being about to be redeveloped.Full occupancy does not automatically mean a healthy retail market. Overt signs of distress are there in Chiswick including a continued proliferation of charity shops and temporary looking stores selling vapes and mobile phone accessories. Looking at the data presented on the BBC site tells you nothing about the stress that local retailers are under and the massive challenges that they face. You really need to chat to some of them to get a true picture of what is going on. I'm not trying to say that C9 is in anyway responsible for this - in the context of the much more impactful factors, it probably barely matters at all either way but I do think trying to create a positive narrative for it in the context of local retail carries the risk of creating complacency. People really need to be aware that if they can give support to local businesses now is the time to be doing so.

Jeremy Parkinson ● 1347d

Do you not speak English?You spoke to a couple of proprietors? I wonder which ones. You’d really need to do a comprehensive survey of the entire High Road, not a selected (and presumably not randomly) few outlets.But saying that C9 is a positive or negative is irrelevant. Those using the cycle route aren’t necessarily shopping in Chiswick are they? Just as those driving through aren’t. You just want to try and make the correlation because it fits your narrative. As has been frequently pointed out, Chiswick is an affluent area with a large number of residents close to the High Road who can, and invariably do, walk there. You and others like to claim that the roads are clogged with cars because local residents are doing short trips to the shops, yet there’s no evidence of that. Most traffic is passing through, albeit choosing alternative routes because the High Road is almost impassable now. Do you not think that’s got something to do with the drop in car numbers?I’m not against your cycle lane, although I think the expense far outweighs the alleged benefits but to constantly claim that cycling will massively increase is simply incorrect. The figures show its still a minority activity, despite what you believe.You should really be more concerned about the likely decision to allow private escooters on the roads. A survey late last year revealed that half of those using escooters did so instead of walking or cycling. Only 21 percent would have used a car or taxi. A worrying trend for you cycling zealots, especially if they clog up your lovely bike lane!

Simon Hayes ● 1346d

Wow! I hadn’t realised my question (yes question!) would release such a stream of consciousness.  But thank you for all your replies. I have replied to Paul’s post given it tangibly moves the question on, which is now "How many cyclists are actually using C9?” I would however, like to provide some context to my original post. I was (and still am) hoping to establish some facts. The reason for asking about the Telraam was that in the summer on this forum Tom Pike waxed lyrical about it, with the specific claim in a post he started that “C9 bike numbers take off” for which his evidence was that “A new counter on Kings Street, just after the junction with Goldhawk Road, shows that while weekday bike counts in May and June were averaging around 2000, in the last three weeks they've increase very significantly to more than 3000.”  It appears now to Tom Pike that this wasn’t accurate, which raises questions over his other claims. I do not believe I have misquoted Paul Campbell as he claims in his reply since around the same time as Tom Pike’s post he tweeted “Thank goodness for this cycle lane facilitating 3000 safe and clean journeys plus per day during these roadworks.” Campbell’s own data posted on this thread shows approximately 2,500 journeys per day on average in the summer, less in the winter, so would not support such a claim. So Paul does appear to have been jumping on Tom Pike’s Telraams bandwagon, and I think my original point was justified in quoting as such. And finally Paul says in this thread “And the time spent searching my posts to find my statement on the number of cyclists and the time spent imagining the glorious scenario of me owning the camera and being hosted by my own petard. This looks like an especially idiotic offshoot of the local Onesies at work.” Well firstly I didn’t spend any time. I remembered reading Paul’s claim in the summer and it took me about 5 seconds to search for it a moment ago. Second, I didn’t say Paul owned the camera – that’s Paul’s careful use of words – I said Paul asked for it to be fitted. How do I know this? Someone I know was in the shop buying some bike gear (yes I have cyclist friends – and horror – I am one myself!) and asked who had it fitted. The shop said it was Paul Campbell. Paul – are you denying your involvement? Third – I’m not a Onesie, as Paul calls it (which to be frank is pretty infantile language and discredits no one but himself), but a keen local cyclist, and motorist, interested in the truth. As Paul will already know (as he asked for the camera to be fitted) the camera is owned by his cycling buddy Leo Murray (who he follows on Twitter).  How do I know? Well another 10s ‘research’ on Twitter finds Leo tweeting the King Street data from “my Telraam camera”. So what does this tell me so far. 1. The pro-cyclists seem to pick and choose their data to support their cause – Telraam was lauded in the summer when it supported 3000 cyclists, but dropped in the winter when it counted only 1000.2. I would never believe anything posted by Tom Pike as he particularly manipulates data. For example, even while claiming there were 3000 bikes reported by Telraam what he didn’t tell you (but is found on their website) is that it can’t distinguish between bicycles and motorbikes (or indeed pushchairs) – it actually counts “two-wheelers”, but Pike keenly represented those as bicycle only, which I think was particularly misleading when the camera is situated next to a Papa John’s and an Indian takeaway both of which have motorised “two wheelers” taking off all day and night, which will have boosted “bike” numbers. As Tom Pike would well know.3. Paul Campbell also posts deliberately misleading comments, such as his one about not “owning” the camera. (Okay, that might not surprise many people here.)4. No one seems to be coming clean about the number of cyclists using C9. As noted above, I am interested in the facts of the data, the truth if you like, but that’s an absolute truth not a Meghan and Harry style “our truth” that seems to come from the London Borough of Hounslow Cycling Campaign. So, how many cyclists are actually using C9?  Honestly? What is the average number per day over a year, say?

John Roberts ● 1346d

Ok Tom I know nothing about retail property having dealt soley in retail property since 1988 acting on behalf on occupiers and landlords throughout the UK in order to give balanced advice to both sides completing in excess of 40 transactions per year. I know nothing about the local retail market having acted on the following to name but a few off the top of my head; White Stuff, Fresh, Toni & Guy, Paperchase, Poundland, Urban Rose, Ole & Steen …..The reason that so called “research” is rubbish was explained in my previous post yesterday at 17:03 I think you will find but of course you know that as you responded to it. Given you’re so sad that just like Paul Campbell you appear to like to spend an overtly sad amount of time trawling my social media I’m surprised you forgot you must have read that yesterday.It may surprise you that I’m not particularly bothered what you think about my views on the state of local retail as you’re not the one paying for my services in this regard. Yes I would like motorway speed limits removed as guess what, I like driving, do a lot of miles a year in my job often visiting 5 or 6 retail centres in a 14 hour 400+ mile day and if they are clear and safe to do so why stick at 70mph with modern day technology? Perhaps you can remind me where the other one came from in order I can ascertain the context and reply as unlike you I’m not about to trawl through social media, I’ve got some shops that need leases renewed on.

Mark Talbot ● 1346d

Anita, I'd agree it's been more a slow decline rather than a sharp drop-off, but overall the effect is significant. Sainsbury's themselves have decided that the new development doesn't need as much parking, with the number of spaces halving. Thinking about your conclusion, there is some good evidence to suggest there has been a shift in how people shop in Chiswick, with fewer arriving by car and more by bike. The relative proportion can be assessed by looking at the relationship between pedestrian, bike and car counts on the High Road. Between the commuter peaks, from 10 am to 4 pm when shopping drives a higher proportion of all travel, there is a strong relationship between the pedestrian, car and bike counts. This is not very surprising as, for example, you see a lunchtime maximum for all three counts as people after arriving by car or bike are then counted on foot. The relationship is very similar between pedestrian counts and either car or bike counts and suggests that both bike and car counts on the High Road contribute a similar proportion, about 20% each, to footfall during the daytime. The other 60% either walk or come by bus or tube. There are some uncertainties here, as people can certainly bike or drive in to shop without passing the cameras and then be picked up walking, but the same applies to both bikes and cars. During these hours 20% of the total car counts on the High Road can be associated with footfall, while it's 50% of bike counts. Again, this is not surprising because as bike trips are shorter, they're more likely to have a local destination. So as a much higher proportion of people on bike look like they are coming in to shop, even though bike counts are just over one third of car counts during these hours, they make similar contributions to the footfall.  Since C9 opened those daytime bike counts have more than doubled, and with it the contribution of cyclists to footfall. This helps explain why even with the significant decrease in car counts, footfall on the High Road has increased: a drop in 2000 cars a day can be compensated by an increase of 800 bikes, and probably less as it's likely through car traffic that has been reduced the most by the pandemic.  Overall, there has been a shift from car to bike for travelling to the High Road to shop, and the growth in cycling has helped retail in Chiswick fare the last couple of years rather better than our neighbours.

Tom Pike ● 1346d

“A new counter on Kings Street, just after the junction with Goldhawk Road, shows that while weekday bike counts in May and June were averaging around 2000, in the last three weeks they've increase very significantly to more than 3000.”  It appears now to Tom Pike that this wasn’t accurate, which raises questions over his other claims. 

Here's an overlay of the Telraam counts near Goldhawk Road in green and the TfL counts at TGT in purple:
You can see that the Telraam counts start off matching pretty well, with very similar peak values for the Tube strike. There's not an exact match as they are at different locations, but they track each other until August. By September it was clear the Telraam data was no longer giving accurate counts, and I said as much, adding that until there was some corroboration, not much reliance could be put on any of the Telraam data.

Once the TfL data came in, it was clear that the Telraam counts had in fact been giving reasonable values until August. My initial assessment had been valid, as had my assessment that the counts were certainly invalid after August. 

There was clearly no manipulation on my part, and in particular when I was asked several technical questions, including how motorbikes were counted,  I gave the link to the FAQ on the Telraam website that gave all the exact answers. I was not hiding anything.

You ignored both the information I gave as well as my words of caution and instead proclaimed that the Telraam counts had shown a collapse of cycling when that had simply not happened. After failing to make a valid analysis you are left with making false allegations under a false name. At least you are consistent.

Tom Pike ● 1346d