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Interesting reading Tom

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/road-traffic-estimates-in-great-britain-2021/minor-road-traffic-estimates-review-technical-report

Maggie Dodge ● 1453d46 Comments

Indeed, Maggie. Let's hope whoever runs the government, maybe unlikely to be Truss much longer unless the pusillanimous Tories can't face another vote, read and take note.

Claire Moran ● 1452d

Thanks, Maggie, for drawing it to my attention.The revisions suggest that the increase in traffic along minor roads in general is not as large as previously estimated. With the revisions, while Great Britain saw an 8% increase in traffic, London as a whole saw no increase in traffic between 2009 and 2019. We now also have separate estimates for inner and outer London. Inner London traffic fell by about 10% while outer London traffic increased by 3% between 2009 and 2019. This certainly suggests that satnav has played less of a role than previously suggested in directing traffic onto minor roads, though these roads still saw the greatest increase in traffic since 2013. It also suggests that TfL's efforts under all London mayors to reduce vehicle traffic has been more successful than previously thought: there's been a greater modal shift to both public and active transport than previously estimated, with an even greater modal shift in inner London compared to the rest of London and Great Britain, just where the investment in active transport has been concentrated.

Tom Pike ● 1452d

You’re welcome Tom 👍I know you love  this sort of stuff. Surprised you weren’t already aware.

Maggie Dodge ● 1452d

Here's the latest from the DfT on transport use since the beginning of the pandemic. Weekday cycling this year has now overtaken the level seen between March and September 2020, at the peak of the pandemic. 

While car use is 10% down on prepandemic levels this year, cycling is up 30%.
 

Tom Pike ● 1452d

Interesting 👍

Maggie Dodge ● 1451d

Graphs leave me cold , I find the written word works better for me. “Big news this week. DfT have revised all of their previous data about number of cars on side roads. Having previously claimed that side road traffic has increased due to Sat Navs, it is now official that there was no increase and numbers are static (I’m sure there will be some anomolies). So all of the claims by Lambeth and many other councils and LCC are now proven to be false. There is loads of data on Twitter - too much for me to share easily.Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan Transport for London Lambeth Council. Now keep your word that you will get rid off the LTN's or pay the price for your lack of vision it's up to you.”

Maggie Dodge ● 1451d

Actually, TfL relies on its own road counts, not those from the DfT. Even before the latest revision, TfL had already recognised that there was something odd with the previous DfT minor-road count revision in 2019 that suggested a large increase in  London traffic driven by the increase in minor-road flows: "...pending further investigation of this revision with the DfT, we consider it reasonable to base our assessment of changes between 2018 and 2019 on TfL’s own traffic monitoring data."  (Travel in London Report 13, p 92)This new revision brings DfT's traffic counts much closer to TfL's, and confirms TfL were right to be suspicious. Meanwhile, the assessment of any change in traffic due to LTNs is based on local traffic counts, not the aggregated DfT traffic estimates that have been subject to these revisions. In this year's elections both Hounslow and Hammersmith and Fulham's councils were returned with manifest commitments to further reduce traffic and improve air quality. You can expect more, not less, schemes to help deliver their election promises.

Tom Pike ● 1451d

Hammersmith and Fulham is about to implement Borough-wide "Clean air neighbourhoods" across every single ward to eliminate out-of-Borough through-traffic on residential streets. Starting November this year with Brackenbury and then rolling out to summer 2024. They are also going to reallocate more main road space to cycle lanes and space for people instead of cars."The Clean Air Neighbourhoods programme will seek to improve the health of residents through a range of measures and public realm area improvements, including new trees, greening, sustainable drainage systems, pedestrian safety improvements, cycling facilities and traffic access restrictions. It will repurpose street space to be used by the community for play streets, community theatre, and resident-led events such as street parties."50 years of car monoculture in urban space is over and there will indeed be more and more of these schemes to come. Chiswick car addicts should rush over to H&F this month to get their fix of driving through residential streets before it ends.

Paul Campbell ● 1451d

The new DfT traffic counts that include 2021 indicate that cycling mileage last year was higher than previously estimated.  Rather than returning to prepandemic levels as previously reported, cycling was up by 16% in Great Britain as a whole compared to 2019. It's also notable that the region with the highest increase in cycling was London, with 38% growth since 2019, down only 7% from the peak in cycling mileage seen in 2020. It also looks like the schemes rolled out across London not only did best in encouraging cycling, but produced the largest modal shift in terms of the increase in the proportion of miles cycled rather than driven, more than three times larger than seen in the rest of the country. For comparison, in the Netherlands 28% of all trips are cycled, with a mileage share of just over 10%. In London we had a mileage share of 4.4% cycled in 2021, and it looks like that fraction has already grown considerably in 2022. We have a while to go before reaching Dutch levels of cycling in London, but we could now be more than halfway there.https://roadtraffic.dft.gov.uk

Tom Pike ● 1451d

What Paul neglects to mention, unsurprisingly, is that within spitting distance of Brackenbury there's a spiffy new 625-car park which is cheaper than street parking. Thus, street parking is less desirable. Parking, however, is still very much in demand. It might shift, but it ain't going nowhere. Lucky for businesses LBHF put the necessary parking infrastructure in place prior to any greening initiative. LBH did it in Brentford but, as usual, they neglected Chiswick.

David Lesniak ● 1451d

“Car addicts”😂have you  sold yours then Paul ?

Maggie Dodge ● 1450d

Improving air quality by introducing LTNs? It’s been proven and reported back on by the people who matter, the residents,  in various boroughs,  that when , for whatever reason, LTNs are suspended, traffic flows better.  Despite seeing this and having happier neighbourhoods, they are put back in asap! My guess is that Fishers Lane will never reopen because the cycle lobby don’t want anyone to see traffic flow as a result.

Maggie Dodge ● 1450d

I have a car Maggie. It doesn't make me a "Car Addict".If I was, I wouldn't have walked a distance of nearly 30 miles over the last week, a lot of it around Chiswick and LBHF.I doubt Paul is a "Car Addict" either. But don't let that stop you 'calling him out' as one.

Andrew Jones ● 1450d

Tom's graphs displaying percentage changes are rather misleading, bearing in mind that a 100% increase could just be going from 1 to 2!  By displaying the information on the same coordinates, at a glance these graphs suggest that there's more cycling than cars, but that's not what they actually show.  It's showing percentage changes since whenever, which isn't the same. To indicate the required modal shift, the actual number of cyclists should be seen to increase to the same extent as the actual number of cars decreases, to suggest that people have actually moved from one mode to another.

Peter Evans ● 1450d

He also implies that cycling % mileage wotsit in London tripled in 2022. Where’s that number from, or did I miss summat in a double Dutch comparison?

Russell Pearson ● 1450d

Andrew, your indignation and logic are rather skewed. Paul can call people car addicts, but not the other way around. Why?I presume Maggie has a car. So do you. Yet you're not a car addict. Is Maggie?

David Lesniak ● 1450d

We’re on to Tom  aren’t we? He takes perfectly good stats and tries to deny their findings with his own shall we say misleading ones. It must be exhausting.

Maggie Dodge ● 1450d

Peter, the DfT daily estimates can only detect changes, not absolute numbers, so there's no other way of plotting them other than as the percentages given. 

However, if you want absolute numbers they are available from the National Travel Survey. Here's the annual average number of trips reported as being made as a driver and as a cyclist in London, with the modal share calculated between the two. The share of cycling has increased from 10% in 2019 to 15% last year, in line with the 50% increase in cycling mileage for London from the DfT's traffic counts over the same period. 

Tom Pike ● 1450d

Ha , Andrew , defending the charming PC? Did I call him out ? or did he start the narrative. My name is Maggie and I drive a car. I also walk and take publicity transport. However, I don’t cycle. Paul has an issue with cars and drivers but can’t give up the habit, despite seemingly having an issue with it. Who’s  got a problem? Who best fits the addict definition?

Maggie Dodge ● 1450d

David, I'm not indignant, I'm just aware that Maggie considers Paul to be a hypocrite because he happens to have and use a car.I also interpret Maggie's post as suggesting that Paul is in some way a 'Car Addict' because he hasn't got rid of his own car. And no she hasn't said that directly, but that's my interpretation of what the sub text of what she wrote is.I very much doubt that Maggie is a car addict.I don't think it's a particularly helpful phrase by the way, it does however convey the idea of someone who will automatically use their car for even the shortest journeys and who believes that car use should remain as unrestricted as it used to be back in the pre-LTN and pre cycle lane halcyon days.

Andrew Jones ● 1450d

Hi Maggie,If you've read my reply to David you will see that I don't consider either you or Paul to be 'car addicts'We (obviously) don't have an agreed definition of 'car addict' but it seems to me that you are suggesting Paul is a 'car addict' himself. Are you? Or do you think the same as me and consider that neither of you are so called 'car addicts'?If you've read my reply to David you will see that I don't consider either you or Paul to be 'car addicts', and perhaps you agree with me on this last point.

Andrew Jones ● 1450d

And this shows just how well London has done compared to all the other regions of England in terms of encouraging a modal shift to cycling. In 2003 it had a lower modal share of cycling than both the South East and East of England. Now London's modal share of cycling is four times the average for the rest of England.

Tom Pike ● 1450d

Last line in previous post was included in error, and should have been removed before publication!

Andrew Jones ● 1450d

Have you interrogated this data at all Tom, or do you just accept it verbatim?

Russell Pearson ● 1450d

As usual anti-safer streets campaigners are missing the point. I wonder how long it will take for the penny to drop that veery single ward in Hammersmith and Fulham is going to be a LTN by summer 2024?I've been saying for some time that the cycle lane, Fishers Lane and South Chiswick LTN are just the beginning. Pandora's box is open. The genie is out of the bottle. Street space is going to change dramatically in the next decade. People will look back and laugh at the amount of fuss they caused over a cycle lane and a couple of traffic restrictions in Chiswick.

Paul Campbell ● 1450d

It is indeed important to crosscheck with independent measurements. TfL questioned the DfT aggregated traffic counts precisely because of their discrepancy with both the Travel Survey results and their own traffic counts. With the  DfT revisions, all three independently collected datasets agree well, so that gives additional confidence to all three. I have treated all the regional datasets identically, and it’s clear that London is the major outlier in terms of a significant modal shift to cycling. Independently, London has seen by far the greatest per capita investment in cycling infrastructure, a correlation that strongly suggests such investment is necessary to encourage a significant modal shift to cycling.  Of course a capital city is also likely to suffer the worst traffic congestion and pollution and that in itself will tend to discourage driving if viable alternatives are encouraged. To that extent London is just the early adopter in terms of policies such as congestion charging and pollution control that also will drive a modal shift.  There have been criticisms that traffic policy in London is disjointed, some of which I agree with. LBH at least mouthing an intent to reopen Hammersmith Bridge to traffic is an example, though pushing on with the Silvertown tunnel is even worse. However this consistent dataset does show that overall the policies in London are delivering on the commitment of all our three mayors, Livingston, Johnson and Khan, to reduce motor traffic and encourage cleaner alternatives. All three deserve a share of the credit.

Tom Pike ● 1450d

As for Tom's 'average number of trips' graphs, they seem to suggest that, over time, car journeys steadily reduced from about 260 to 150, while cycling stayed pretty constant between 20 and 25, with a little blip at the end.  What's misleading is the grey line, which suggests, on the same screen but using a different scale, that there's been a percentage increase in the 'modal share of cycling'.  While that might be mathematically true, the 'change in share' appears to be because of the decline in car journeys rather than any significant increase in cycle journeys.  So I don't think these graphs really tell us that the reduction of 100 car journeys actually resulted in any corresponding increase in cycling. They just as likely decided to use public transport.

Peter Evans ● 1450d

Cycling trips had increased by 50% before the pandemic, and have now more than doubled. If they hadn’t the modal shift to cycling would be just half the current value if 15%. Of course the drop in car trips contributed as well, but in terms of the overall effect on the modal shift the growth in cycling and drop in car trips had a similar effect. In fact in 2021 cycling trips were running at 46% of bus trips, 61% of tube trips and 300% of taxi trips. These proportions are significant and are likely to grow further.

Tom Pike ● 1450d

Or perhaps people were on holiday. Car being serviced. Staying with relatives. In hospital for an operation. I think I could produce a graph to back that theory up.

Maggie Dodge ● 1450d

As far as I can tell, not a single critique of Tom's figures or conclusions has ever held water, so I think it would be amazing to see your graph!  Please do produce one.

Phil Kay ● 1450d

Really, you think all the numerous critiques have all been wrong.  You can prove that can you ?  I think the days of anyone believing  anything the cycle lobby and their friends say are loooong gone. If you’d just kept it within the realms of possibility.

Maggie Dodge ● 1450d

Professor Tom Pike of Imperial College, NASA consultant vs. Maggie Dodge and Russell Pearson. It's really not going to be to a split decision is it? KO first round every time.

Paul Campbell ● 1450d

I'm not sure what I'm being asked to prove, nor to what standard."It’s been proven and reported back on by the people who matter, the residents,  in various boroughs,  that when , for whatever reason, LTNs are suspended, traffic flows better".  To this level?I do not consider myself to be part of the cycling lobby.  I was against all of the LTNs apart from the one in Hanwell that was retained.

Phil Kay ● 1450d

Andrew, I think Maggie's point is akin to saying Paul he's vegan except for when he eats fish and the occasional bit of steak and kidney pie.His outrage with respect to others using cars rings hollow when we all know he uses his let alone jets here, there and everywhere.  A proper vegan wouldn't go near an egg hence a proper advocate for these changes would have ditched their car long ago and would exclusively use public transport and forego international flights. Paul is none of those things.As for street space changing I couldn't agree more. But people will still use cars be they private or hired and roads will continue to be clogged by ill thought out plans that only focus on one thing. The inane piecemeal attempt at  the major rethink needed is only making matters worse with dwindling resources wasted. I'm wondering what the new Chancellor will cut in the budget now that they pretty much have to cut everything. If there are rumblings they will cut green initiatives, do you really think they'll continue to throw money at schemes that, in some cases, have been reversed? When people can't pay the mortgage? Or the fuel bill?

David Lesniak ● 1450d

Thank you David.for making my point clearer .  I should just have stuck  to calling P C  a car owning hypocrite,

Maggie Dodge ● 1450d

Paul Campell explained" Professor Tom Pike of Imperial College, NASA consultant "Which might help explain a lot..." NASA lost its $125-million Mars Climate Orbiter because spacecraft engineers failed to convert from English to metric measurements when exchanging vital data before the craft was launched, space agency officials said Thursday."https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1999-oct-01-mn-17288-story.htmlmichael adams

Michael Adams ● 1450d

What exactly are the requirements to be a Professor of Imperial College, NASA consultant ?

Maggie Dodge ● 1450d

Personally, my favorite thing when the bros trot out the NASA schtick is they all ignore Tom's broad brush use of "data" when we all know - even heathens - that the atmosphere on Mars ain't what it is on Jupiter so clearly the devil is in the detail.

David Lesniak ● 1450d

Did I say this already ? “Traffic figures used to justify controversial low-traffic neighbourhoods (LTNs) were incorrect, the Department for Transport (DfT) has admitted.”

Maggie Dodge ● 1450d

Paul hits the nail on the head with his Maslow’s Hammer. He’s treating social data in the same way that he would with data generated from say a closed system measuring device. A classic Birmingham Screwdriver anti-pattern.

Russell Pearson ● 1450d

Maggie Dodge asked" What exactly are the requirements to be a Professor of Imperial College, NASA consultant ? "The requirements and positions are neither here nor there, as it happens. Whatever Paul Campbell might think.What any self-respecting scientist should be doing right now is to allay the public's perfectly understandable suspicions about nuclear power in all its aspects, and explain the latest developments and the long term prospects.Tne future if there is going to be one is going to be nuclear.* Renewables are plagued by the twin problems of intermittancy, they're not always available, and subsequent problems of storage. Among other problems. Climate change isn't going to be reversed by somehow persuading billions of Chinese and Indian people to get back on their bikes; as neither is it by persuading millions of people in rural America to ride bicycles for hundreds of miles between towns where there is no viable public transport. And never has been.In the context of which its difficult to see how arguing how many more people actually rode bicycles on a particu;lar stretch of road in West London on a particular day is a good use of anyone's time, whatever their position.michael adams* with cars powered by nuclear generated electricity

Michael Adams ● 1450d

I thought that. High five 🖐

Maggie Dodge ● 1450d

Interesting that you don’t include yourself there Paul, very wise !

Maggie Dodge ● 1450d

Indeed Maggie. It’s a classic. Now if we take Rachel Aldred, in contrast -  I don’t always agree with what she says, but she’s read her Frankfurt School and knows the dangers of crudely applying raw data to complex social problems. That’s why in her publications she heavily caveats how she’s used the data, recognising, correctly, that any form of data about people, is inherently problematic.

Russell Pearson ● 1450d

Really,  I heard she’s just a female version of Pike but worse still paid by TFL. I bow to your greater knowledge Russell.

Maggie Dodge ● 1450d

From Twitter:“How can we believe anything from Labour, even the Mayor lied regarding air pollution in London.”The words “even the Mayor” made me smile as if he’s usually squeaky clean

Maggie Dodge ● 1450d