Forum Topic

The predictions by Jonathan Mabbutt and others are both absolutely certain and utterly apocalyptical."We all know the impact will be huge across Chiswick, Kew and surrounds. Expectations are of back-ups all the way into central London along the A4 corridor.""impending gridlock for all A roads from Mortlake, Sheen, Richmond, Kew in the south through to Hammersmith, Fulham, Barons Court, Earls Court, Kensington, and Shepherds Bush"Indeed, the only way London won't seize up is by opening Grove Park as a diversion for motorway traffic and "potentially turn it into a car park".The predictions are based on the philosophy that every single car journey is essential - the journey can't be shifted to another mode, it can't be delayed or retimed, it can't be aggregated with other journeys, it can't be diverted, substituted or abandoned - it has to happen.Thus, if you close a main road, any traffic that can't go down that road must "flow" through other roads.  There is another view which is that if you reduce supply of road space, the result is less traffic - the cost of the congestion or extra journey time suppresses the number of car journeys and/or prompts a modal shift.  This alternative prediction would be an initial period of higher congestion on alternative roads, but fewer journeys will take place overall and congestion may increase but not to the extremes of Jonathan's predictions.  This debate is a bit like climate change where observations of weather (either very hot or very cold) are extrapolated to prove or disprove climate change.  The actual "proof" of climate change or traffic evaporation is based on the analysis of large data sets which feels remote to the "real lived experience" of those who've already made up their minds.    The interesting one to watch will be the school run - responsible for over 25% of morning peak traffic - and nearly 50% in some areas.  If a school round trip doubles or triples in length, you might see parents walking, cycling or taking public transport more and using the car less.

Ed Saper ● 1506d

Hi, Richard.I'll take your points one by one.1.) Agreed. Never said otherwise.2.) Disagree. With all the TfL money spent on all their trail and error schemes, by this point they should know what to do and what not to do. They don't. This scheme was implemented during the first lockdown, if memory serves. It was implemented on both sides of the road. The westbound side was removed almost immediately after it was installed (a.k.a an enormous loss in resources) so while the eastbound side was left to rot, it costs people and businesses time and money. As to the latter, TfL and/or its affiliates actually put a number on it. It can be found online and on this forum. Again, if memory serves, it was roughly £1500 for all the added costs of delays and re-routing. 3.) This is a pointless point. As I'm sure you are well aware. This is a public forum meant to discuss ideas or share info. Wasn't it you having a go at me on - well just about everything- on the Pete Buttigieg thread?  Not very Chiswick of you now is it? Oh wait, perhaps that's the point of Point #3. A veiled swipe under the guise of localism.Now I know you like to ask questions and then dog people for answers, so I'll bite like the dog I am. I don't agree Chiswick/West London has reached peak traffic. For if we did all councils throughout London would be putting the kibbosh on building building building. For these new structures will generate new traffic not least of which will be repeated deliveries to the people and businesses within them. Given TfL and the Mayor like to react as opposed to pro-act, I'd said we're all going to be screwed soon enough. And I'm sorry, but I have yet to understand the difference between a private care journey and that very person booking an Uber. Either way a car is on the road getting someone somewhere. Or should we all stay home confined to the back bedroom? Let me know how that works for you, Richard.

David Lesniak ● 1501d