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Very interesting question - the short answer is Ken Clarke. The only reason Johnson remains is that the Tories haven't worked out how they can possibly extricate themselves from the mess they have created.  Normally a potential leader would emerge who would 'unite the party' but the problem is that there are really two parties at the moment. Yes there have been divisions before but there is virtually no common ground between the One Nation Conservatives and the ERG/Anti-lockdown wing of the party. Johnson held the two sides together by telling both what they wanted to hear and they chose to believe him.I suspect that all of the potential candidates have worked out that when the price cap is raised on 1 April there will be an energy bill crisis which will dwarf the outrage seen over Downing Street party central. Much better to leave Johnson to deal with this and then take the resulting flak over the local election results. At this stage the Conservatives might even be on the point of losing most of their seats in Chiswick.Nobody wants to be the assassin on the basis that this is a role that never leads to the crown so a stalking horse challenge might be necessary to shake the people who actually want the job out of the tree.The short list is probably Javid, Sunak, Patel, Truss and Gove.Patel and Gove will probably be ruled out because they are too personally unappealing and MPs of their own party can't stand them.The membership seem to like Liz Truss for a reason that I can't begin to understand but she has alienated MPs from both wings of the party so she is unlikely to be picked by them.That leaves Javid and Sunak who had this stage would be my pick for the two that will lead vote among MPs - Javid will pitch to the relatively sane wing of the party whereas Sunak will be seen as sound on Brexit and will gain the headbanger vote whilst persuading a broader range of MPs to support due to him appearing to be not totally unbalanced. Sunak would definitely win the vote of members and then would become Prime Minister probably with Javid as his Chancellor.

Francis Rowe ● 1714d

Richard Greenhough" It is difficult to understand how Old Jeremiah did so well in 2017 and so poorly in 2019, unless the voters had finally woken up to what he stood for.""What he stood for"A nice "snide" remark from Richard there as usual.What Richard really means there of course, is that it was only after 2017 that all the "evidence" started emerging of Corbyn's raging ant-semitism, which not only made him unfit to lead the Party, but to even be a member.So that in the Spectator, Geoffrey Alderman an Orthodox Jewish historian specialising in 19th and 20th centuries Jewish community in Englandwrites as follows "The fact of the matter is that Corbyn has an impressive record of supporting Jewish communal initiatives."Eh ?" Indeed I could fill this entire article with a list of philo-Semitic EDMs that Corbyn has signed since he was first elected as Labour MP for Islington North in 1983. "Come again ?" So when Islington Council granted  the planning application, a Jewish-led and ultimately successful campaign was launched to have the decision reversed. I was part of that campaign. So was Jeremy Corbyn. Meanwhile, the then-leader of Islington Council (1982-92), whose decision to permit the destructionof the cemetery was eventually overturned, was none other than Margaret Hodge (though it is unclear whether she personally was in favour of the proposal)."Margaret Hodge ? Not Red Margaret ? Who at one point vied with Red Ted Knight and Red Ken as LooneyLeft hate figures in the "Standard". Who then met Tony Blair, took a sharp turn to the right, remembered she was Jewish, and has had her claws into Jeremy Corbyn ever since      he went on" I have deliberately omitted from this discussion any consideration of Corbyn’s attitude to Zionism and whether anti-Zionism is inherently anti-Semitic. All I will say here – as a proud Zionist – is that in my view context is, again, paramount.But the grounds for labelling him an anti-Semite simply do not exist.https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/is-jeremy-corbyn-really-anti-semitic-So there we have it. Starting in 2017 or thereabouts a smear campaign was launched against Jeremy Corbyn for no other reason that it had become apparent that his leftist policies were in fact far more popular with the electorate than many people felt comfortable with.michael adams

Michael Adams ● 1710d

The reasons for Labour's collapse in the north and midlands are complex and I don't believe that they will ever get back to their former dominance. However, the indications currently are that they will win back a lot of lost seats at the next election and hopefully will never take voters in those areas for granted again.One major social change that Labour needs to look at is the way in which government is increasingly funded through charges, fines and fees and not general taxation. In London this includes an expensive to use transport system. The effect of funding this way is highly regressive and very unfair.  Labour politicians have often promoted measures which have purported to be green but clearly the chief intention of which is to raise money.Their blind spot on this is perhaps revealed by the BBC issue. Labour seems to have failed to recognise that for some people the cost is a big chunk out of their disposable income and to characterise it as 42p a day like some dodgy insurance company is not going to work. Under the current funding arrangements the cost of the licence would have just continued to rise mainly to pay the ever increasing costs of the corporation's pension fund.There isn't really any sustained hostility to the BBC itself among the population despite the consistent attempts of the right wing press to stir it up but the licence is a highly regressive tax and needs to be revisited. This issue is part of a deeper problem of government finances that Labour really need to get to grips with which will be hard when they have to take over from the most profligate administration this country has ever seen.

Mark Evans ● 1710d