Forum Topic

Boris’ Exit Date - the bookies

I’m not a gambling man, but do these odds seem reasonable?https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/boris-johnson-exit-date

Russell Pearson ● 1731d42 Comments

Russell, when predicting a winner, be it a horse or a PM, the bookies know the percentages better than anyone. Should Boris succombe to the pressure, placing Liz Truss as favourite to take over at 5/1 is probably a shrewd choice.If as the new Brexit negotiator she leans towards allowing Northern Ireland to come under the jurisdiction of the European Justice system however, the hard nosed Brexiteers within the Commons would try to put a stop to that appointment

Denis I. Fox ● 1731d

Put your money on Boris doing the full term. Plus the next term of office. Boris is a lucky man.

James Dow ● 1731d

As ever, the bookies don't seem to be offering particularly generous odds on Johnson surviving and winning the next election even though he is less than evens to last until the next election.

Jeremy Parkinson ● 1731d

These are known as Novelty bets during mid term and most wont take much of your money as they are impossible to make a book due to the lack of money  Many dont even bother making a market as oddschecker shows

Julian Pavey ● 1731d

James, I agree Boris will survive.I was merely trying to take my mind away from the debacle happening in Melbourne.

Denis I. Fox ● 1730d

“We don't rise to the level of our expectations, we fall to the level of our training.”Probably applies both to Johnson and the England cricket team!

Vanessa Smith ● 1730d

Very true.And interesting that you mention a team. The other team here is the tory party. They are very capable of taking action to protect themselves. They know that any leader needs a good clean run up to the next election. Say a good and clean 2 years. That means Johnson has to not become any more of a liability over the next 12 months. If not the tory team will wonder if they can risk having such an embarrassment as leader into the next election. With such low ratings.He may be 'lucky' or 'teflon' - but he is also stupidly prone to self inflected damage. Percy Pig anyone? I'd not take a bet on Johnson sailing through 2022 without upset.

Alan Clark ● 1730d

England to win next test match  7/1 Cons to win next election            7/10

Julian Pavey ● 1730d

The Tory party has a history of ruthlessly protecting their chances of winning. If that means ditching a liability, if he continues to be one, then they will do that. Those odds will reflect that ruthlessness.

Alan Clark ● 1730d

Plus, let's not forget the Tories are planning to game the electoral system, as well as boundary changes which will almost guarantee a never-ending Tory majority - they are also going to demand proof of identity for some to be able to vote, which they think will affect the Labour vote! We think that countries like Hungary and Belarus and some states in the U.S. are decidedly dodgy, when it comes to elections we need to be looking nearer to home.

Vanessa Smith ● 1730d

Vanessa Smith explained" We think that countries like Hungary and Belarus and some states in the U.S. are decidedly dodgy"Er make that the whole of the US given that the Presidentis elected by all the States.The more you read about the 2000 US Election, the more you come to realise that poor old Trump with his army of knuckle dragging retards have been set up, all along, fall guys or patsies to cover up what went before.Basically Gore lost the 2000 US Presidency on the basis of rigged counts in Florida; which had her won would have secured him the Presidency. Among other ploys Democrats were removed from the electoral roll on the "suspicion" that they may have been convicted felons; all supervised by Governor Jed Bush G.W.Bush's cousin. And a recount was halted by the 5 man conservative majority in The Supreme Court, most/all or whom had been appointed by G.Bush Snr; G.W's Bushes dad. Halted on the basis that  " recounts would cast "a needless and unjustified cloud" over Bush's legitimacy.* At least Trump's knuckledraggers made their intentions plain all along rather than relying on a rigged Supreme CourtTo be honest, with Starmer still concentrating onwhat he perceives to be his main enemy, rooting out opponents within his own party, the Tories don't need to rig the electoral system.Doubtless David Lammy will be the first of many who will be required to stand up and publicly disown Jeremy Corbyn; if they know what's good for them.https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/28/david-lammy-apologises-for-nominating-corbyn-to-be-labour-leaderIts nice to see that public life still attracts such men of principle michael adamshttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bush_v._Gore

Michael Adams ● 1730d

Sadly Micheal you've hit the nail on the head.Just when you think these people can't get any lower than a snake's belly! What a disgusting creature Lammy turned out to be!

Basil Finnis ● 1730d

Vanessa, the real danger of the Tory party is, along with those you mention, the real curtailment of our civil liberties in the laws currently progressing through parliament - the right to protest and the right to bring a judicial review among the most significant.  These laws must not be passed, we are in danger of becoming like Hong Kong if they are.

Claire Moran ● 1729d

Insulate Britain are a pain though aren't they.

Janice Evans ● 1728d

And you wonder where the great authority on law Starmer is?Have Labour opposed this attack on our civil liberties going through?

Basil Finnis ● 1728d

Sorry, Basil, but the willingness  of Labour Supporters to indulge in factional warring within the party explains why there has been a Conservative government for the entire past four decades, except for 1997-2010. I'm pretty sure you'll find the Bill will be heavily amended after the Lords Report Stage. What makes you think Starmer won't oppose this assault on civil liberties?

Robert Fish ● 1728d

Wouldn’t hold my breath on Starmer and civil liberties.Seems Boris might scrape through, if he’s proved right on not imposing any more restrictions. Might. That also means no more own goals.

Russell Pearson ● 1728d

It is always gratifying to see one’s predictions come true. Ten days into 2022 and Johnson lives up to expectations. Another party, another balls up. I’m looking forward to the local Tory problem (surely I typed “party”and predictive spelling happened) refuseniks jumping onto this thread.

Alan Clark ● 1717d

"The Tories are planning to game the electoral system, as well as boundary changes which will almost guarantee a never-ending Tory majority"Yes Vanessa how wicked to ask those evil b******s at the Boundary Commission to lead a nationwide transparent consultation that will equalise the number of voters in each constituency. Surely this is something you should support - one man/woman one vote?"They are also going to demand proof of identity for some to be able to vote."Not quite sure why you have a problem with this Vanessa? We keep being told that voters who favour "the left" are more highly educated and less resistant to change. My main issue with  this change is that it will take much longer to vote if everyone's ID has to be checked. The whole system needs to go on line and voting should take place over several days and not just on a Thursdays when we all take our pigs to market (why else is it Thursday?).

Cllr Sam Hearn ● 1717d

Looks like the odds have shortened, along with Boris’ chances. Word last week was Reynolds would be the scapegoat.Re boundaries, an effective opposition would be calling for an election by now, with a good chance of winning it. No amount of boundary gerrymandering would work, unless of course, the Tories created a giant version of Hounslow…

Russell Pearson ● 1717d

"They are also going to demand proof of identity for some to be able to vote."'Not quite sure why you have a problem with this Vanessa? We keep being told that voters who favour "the left" are more highly educated and less resistant to change. My main issue with  this change is that it will take much longer to vote if everyone's ID has to be checked.'The point is that there have been so few problems with voter I.D./fraud that this simply isn't needed, do you know how many prosecutions there have been in the last ten years? This awful populist government is gnawing away at our civil liberties and doing anything and everything they can to stay in power indefinitely.The UK has low levels of proven electoral fraud.There remains no evidence of large-scale electoral fraud in 2019.Overview595 cases of alleged electoral fraud were investigated by the police. Of these, four led to a conviction and two individuals were given a police caution.This table shows the number of cases of alleged fraud the police reported to us, for each election held in 2019.Election Number of casesLocal elections 362UK Parliamentary general election 164European Parliamentary election 21Non-election specific (for example, electoral registration) 21Local by-election 12UK Parliamentary by-election 7Mayoral election 6Combined authority mayoral election 1Police and Crime Commissioner by-election 1Sledgehammer - nut?

Vanessa Smith ● 1717d

" how wicked to ask those evil b******s at the Boundary Commission to lead a nationwide transparent consultation that will equalise the number of voters in each constituency. Surely this is something you should support - one man/woman one vote? "Thereby lies a problem Sam, a very large problem. What you say is no doubt accurate but the mob that at the head of the Tory Party are perceived to have run a steam roller over truth and integrity. Independent they may be but the Bojo gang have done so much irreparable damage folk will question everything the do and say.

Adrian Irving ● 1717d

You’re correct Vanessa. Voter ID  fraud is such a very small problem. Tories are in favour of voter  ID as they believe it is to their electoral advantage. Why can’t they just say that? It’s nothing to do with protecting democracy or another noble reason.  The same Tory MPs who are pushing for voter ID are the same ones who scream and shout because they are being asked to wear a mask and to show proof of vaccination going into a night club and who are removing rights to protest. I’m sure that if the Labour Party thought voter ID improved their chances they would be in favour of it.The Boundary Commission always seems to favour whichever party is in power although I’m not sure if the facts and figures support that claim.

Stewart Jones ● 1717d

"We should have ID cards!"Agreed. Not just for voting but for everyday identification and to reduce crime etc etc. It would assist in reducing benefit fraud too.

Steve Taylor ● 1716d

To be fair Sam you, your party and the labour party have been gaming the electoral system since its inception.I don't give a toss about boundary commissions or proof of identity requirements.Neither of these changes make any difference to the all powerful minority government we will get at the next election just like very other time.When I listen to this t--t of a PM talk about his stonking majority I want to puke!FPTP is an elected dictatorship and renders the whole thing Bollocks so no point participating.

Craig David Mcdowell ● 1716d

There was a UK ID card scheme.It was scrapped by the Coalition Government of the Conservatives and Lib Dems in 2011.Maybe we should reintroduce dog licenses as well?

Andrew Jones ● 1716d

And unfortunately with  a proven liar holding the office of PM, increasingly fewer people trust any policy that this government pursues. So many lies, u-turns and more lies.

Stewart Jones ● 1716d

I've not read through this whole thread, so forgive me if I am repeating something which someone else has already posted.It is a profile of Boris by his old boss Max Hastings ("no Leftie he"), from 2012, when Boris was Mayor of London.It's quite magnificent stuff, not least for its prescience:https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/oct/10/boris-johnson-unfit-to-be-prime-minister

Richard Cathcart ● 1716d

Tonight?

Stewart Jones ● 1715d

The Labour Party couldn't have a lamer Shadow Foreign Secretary in David Lammy conveniently disowning Jeremy Corbyn while it lately suits so opportunely for the likes of 'Lame Lammy'.

Bobbie Carnegie ● 1715d

Just like the actual Foreign Secretary, Liz Truss, who campaigned to remain in the EU and then conveniently forgot all those arguments when Johnson offered her a job.

Stewart Jones ● 1715d

You're right Bobbie. Lammy is a particularly slimey scumbag considering his endorsement before. 'He's a close friend' and other warm words before stabbing Corbyn in the back. And they wonder why people dislike politicians?

Basil Finnis ● 1715d

What a great (pathetic) thread. So clearly and only about our rubbish, lying, self- serving PM. The muppet haired self proclaimed “Boris”, when it’s not even his first name. This thread is about him, his actions and his behaviours.But lo, what misdirection falls? Oh, a local Tory trying to swerve this thread elsewhere. A post about Labour. Anyone in Labour. Or any other party. Or any other thing. A tree. Feck, a paving stone. Jeez, help, just name a thing. So our local tories flail about trying to highlight anything. Don’t fool us.Sorry. Johnson is out. ‘Tory’ risks again becoming a tarnished word. That is your new reality. Stark and clear.As I said at the end of last year, Johnson cannot avoid another scandal and given this is stupid Boris there will always be another scandal. Even if he scrapes out of this dirty hole, he had a talent for finding the next. Soon.

Alan Clark ● 1715d

Fretting about the boundary changes is pointless. The best calculations say that, if the 2019 vote were repeate, the tories would have five to ten more seats. In fact, equal representation in Parliament was a demand dating back to the Chartists. No one on the Left should be against that.A key issue in the next election will be can Labour look close enough to securing a majority in England and Wales  that SNP voters will switch to Labour to get the Tories out, while unionist voters choose Labour over the Tories in Scotland as the best way of securing the Union. That's why Douglas Ross et. al. are calling on Johnson to go.

David McLoughlin ● 1713d

'Even if he scrapes out of this dirty hole, he had a talent for finding the next. Soon.'Agree - I've always thought it would be a question of giving him enough rope, and his in-built arrogance and contempt would do the rest.

Vanessa Smith ● 1713d

Can’t believe that only five Tory MPs have written to the 1922 Committee. What a bunch of pathetic wimps the rest of them are. No decency, no morals. Just self serving money grabbing hypocrites!! Disgraceful.

Steve Taylor ● 1713d

To lose one might look like misfortune, but two in a day is carelessness…

Russell Pearson ● 1693d

Can’t believe that the Conservative Government has a Foreign Secretary who  doesn’t know the difference between the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea. And some morons are tipping her to replace Boris!!

Steve Taylor ● 1693d

We had Trump and he was batshit crazy.We have Trumpian politics in the UK now where whatever the Tories do its seen as completely normal. The billions gone missing or given to Tory friends is seen as nothing untoward?What's next? Cats living with dogs

Basil Finnis ● 1693d

Four down now,  Rats and sinking ships?

Vivienne Cox ● 1693d

Well at least she stood clear of embarrassing herself on Celebrity Mastermind, unlike that motormouthed ignoramous from knife-crazy Haringay, aka David Lammy, shadow Foreign secretary.

Denis I. Fox ● 1693d

2 more went a before I realised. They would have had das boot in any event. MM most significant. Just hope Gilligan is next.

Russell Pearson ● 1693d