Forum Topic

What is causing Chiswick's spike in Covid cases?

The infection rates for Chiswick have got worse even since the article in the newsletter highlighting how unusually high they were. The map below shows it a bit more clearly with the dark blue areas signifying the areas with the worst rates of infection. Chiswick has not tended to have unusually high infection rates over the course of the pandemic. The only thing I can think of that has changed recently is the start of weekly Sunday markets which have been very popular. Although I think they are a thoroughly good thing — unless alternative explanations can be found it might be sensible to suspend them for now.

Andrew OSullivan ● 1953d27 Comments

What we could be seeing here is Chiswick's residents willingness to get tested if they have Covid. Maybe the map shows more than just having COVID.

Jason Freeman ● 1953d

Don't see why Chiswick people should be anymore willing to get tested than people in surrounding areas and, if it was the case, we would have had consistently higher infection rates through the pandemic and we haven't.

Mark Evans ● 1953d

Anecdotally, it is spreading amongst the younger ones amongst us.  Unlikely to be the markets - think socialising without the benefit of 2 vaccines.

Cecile Parfitt ● 1953d

"The event called "Let’s Tackle Covid" aimed to increase the number of vaccinations as cases of the Indian coronavirus variant surged in Hounslow, west London."If you don't want the vaccine, why get tested?I think Chiswick is now experiencing the wave from Hounslow. https://uk.news.yahoo.com/boris-johnson-says-concerned-vaccination-193816848.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmluZy5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAA5hxiL1Uhbv2WcXCum7WcEvW1wEd7SYkH8SqaUdHMhPqp338lMNwu6kpVnENg2A-ocYehgxabZj2fvi3Vxkip4o-8PrwEk1OfP73Ztldcgiht65NoTrg255ZLGkLcNRtIzIaoQ5s1cZ2HPe_iTfGiplAt7_dJfqGjWqcImlWK2G

Jason Freeman ● 1953d

Hounslow has lower infection rates than Chiswick so I'm not sure how this area could be said to be experiencing the 'wave from Hounslow'I haven't been to any of the markets as yet but surely not everyone attending is over 50?

Mark Evans ● 1953d

Hounslow has been identified as a hotspot for the Delta variant. All but essential travel there etc...So you have sort of proved my point. Unless magically the variant moved out of Hounslow overnight.

Jason Freeman ● 1953d

As im aware it is the younger generation

Julian Pavey ● 1953d

Jason, I'm not sure what your point is I'm afraid. Some early cases of the Delta variant were identified in the Hounslow area (as opposed to Hounslow Borough) quite early on. However, as far as I can see, since the arrival of the new variant, it never reached the kind of infection rates Chiswick currently has.

Mark Evans ● 1953d

"Hounslow has lower infection rates than Chiswick"Yet Hounslow was an original hotspot for the Delta variant.The government has identified Hounslow area, as a place where vaccine take up is particularly low. I don't see why you would get tested if you refuse the vaccine. As stated in various sources online.My point is, I do not believe for one second that the data surrounding transmission or Covid cases is accurate in the Hounslow (area). There is enough supporting evidence online for me to presume (not assume) this. The data not accurate for testing.

Jason Freeman ● 1953d

I have no idea if you are right but even if you were it would still not explain why Chiswick's rates are higher than every other part of west London as well.

Mark Evans ● 1953d

Could it be as a result of Chiswick having a historically low rate of infections that a complacent attitude has overtaken common sense and being cautious  ? I don't know, but it's worrying.

Loraine Pemberton ● 1953d

These are really low numbers of cases, with large sampling errors. You need to look at a larger scale to see more persistent trends. There seems to be a similar elevated rate of 100-200 cases per 100,000 in the central areas of the five largest cities in the south of the UK, London, Brighton, Southampton, Bristol and Reading. It looks most likely a function of population density rather than any particular local event.

Tom Pike ● 1953d

Possibly. The Guardian and the Spectator both post graphics of official data. The former likes to use it as comment, the latter just posts the data.https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/nationalLooks to me that it’s spreading in the younger population and severe illness /deaths are not increasing dramatically. Maybe Tom can shed some on the numbers - he’s good at that. And trusts raw data. I’ve more of an ‘incredulity towards meta narratives’ so I’m not always so convinced.

Russell Pearson ● 1953d

It’s such a shame that people are being complacent, everyone can see the cases are rising again and the effect it will have on everyone. If people are not vaccinated they should do the sensible thing stick to the rules, be cautious until they do get vaccinated. Just plain selfish.

Jayne Thorburn ● 1952d

Plane selfish was letting in 20,000 people from India so Boris could get his post Brexit trade deal photo op! Not sure I'm seeing much evidence of people relaxing beyond the currrbt rules. 

John Hall ● 1952d

Would the vast majority of these people "let in" from India be British Citizens returning home though?

Paul Fisher ● 1952d

Totally agree we should have stopped all flights from India as soon as the Indian variant was identified. Anyone coming in after that should have been sent to a quarantine hotel. The damage they did importing the variant is shocking. We do need to act faster when a new variant is discovered anywhere in the world.

Jayne Thorburn ● 1952d

Agree with Loraine, Tom and Paul.

Janice Evans ● 1952d

The other areas across the nation with high infection rates do generally seem to have high concentrations of students which can't really be said for Chiswick.Tom maybe right that this is just a data blip based on a small sample but if the numbers look the same in a week's time, it won't be possible to make that argument.

Francis Rowe ● 1952d

There is a third wave, overseen by an incompetent government.

Stewart Jones ● 1951d

Message removed

Fatima Traore ● 1948d

The delta variant is very infectious and it’s secondary schools with high contagion rates

Margie Frew ● 1946d

Yes, my granddaughter’s  school has three classes isolating. This is much higher than at any time during the pandemic

Maggie Dodge ● 1946d

The data over a week later still appears to show Chiswick with a higher rate of infection than neighbouring areas but the number of cases overall doesn't appear to have risen much. Chiswick North West seems to have the highest rate that I could find anywhere in west London.I think two successive weeks of higher than normal rates does start to confirm there is something particular to Chiswick rather than this being just a blip but the lack of momentum in the growth of infections means we may be at the peak.

Francis Rowe ● 1946d

Just one observation. I don’t know if the graph shows absolute numbers or infections per 000. I also don’t know where the cutoff between the colours lies.So, what would the effect of , say, one family of 4-5 coming down with it? Would that be enough to raise the apparent profile above that of its neighbours. In short, this may be a function of a relatively small number of reported cases.

Keith Welham ● 1945d

"New Health Secretary Sajid Javid has signalled that he plans to end all Covid restrictions on 19 July. In his first statement since replacing Matt Hancock, Javid said he was determined that 19 July was the “end of the line” for lockdown, adding that it is time for Britain to “learn to live” with the virus. The freshly appointed cabinet minster added that it was time to “start returning to normal” and that restrictions should not last “a moment longer” than necessary". And not before time. Someone with a bit of common sense at long last.

Brian Coyle ● 1945d

The map is derived from ONS data which is made available online. The darker blue areas indicate an infection rate of over 200 per 100,000 which would roughly translate into 20 or more cases in a week. The lighter blue areas would have had a number of cases in their teens.You might be right that Chiswick appearing to be a bit higher than you might expect it to be could have just been caused by the virus hitting a household with a larger number of people. However, this would now probably have to be made up of the younger generation rather than multi-generational families. Elsewhere in the country high rates appear to be associated with lots of student accommodation which Chiswick doesn't have.There is still probably not quite enough data to reach a firm conclusion but if we are still talking about this in a week then there does seem to be a specific problem in the W4 area which needs identifying.

Francis Rowe ● 1944d