Forum Topic

Tom will as ever attempt to befuddle and confuse with his ever more complex data analysis, all in the continued search to 'prove' his existing beliefs. Lets look at HAmmersmith Bridge, where Tom has gone to great lengths to tell us traffic 'evaporated'. Though what he means by 'traffic' is not defined. Is it the number of vehicles passing two points or the amount of congestion.So the front page story shows the Putney Labour MP leading a protest calling for the reopening of Hammersmith Bridge. She notes the thousands of additional vehicles using Putney bridge and the pollution and congestion this causes, which has a real economic cost. many local community groups support this call. This is what Tom's ludicrous claim of 'evaporation' means in practice. London bridges are already heavily congestion, especially approach roads. So of coruse if you close one, the others cannot take up the slack due to physical capacity constraints. What people experience on the ground is even more gridlock. If you live on a nice leafy side road with no through traffic you seem not to care. Nor it seems bizarrely do these advocates actually travel around London or even their local areas to observe first hand the lunacy of their claims.Then this specific study. Like all others, it tries to look at traffic as a discrete thing, something with a defined and localised impact, rather than like a tide of water that shifts and flows over time. Given that cycle lanes have expaned in length and number, it becomes very hard to isolate a local impact. Also with many bus lanes having been extended in length and operating hours at the same time, its hard to disentangle for example the impact of a bus lane on average speeds in an area from a cyclelane. Plus where there are concerns of gridlock due to cycle lanes (like in Chiswick), key junctions and traffic lights are amended to throttle back traffic away from key sections. So why should we be surprised if this throttling works?The only real way to understand traffic flows and congestion is to look at data for London as a whole. COngestion is not really monitored but we do have data for London bus speeds, and these are falling every year. Despite bus lanes, signal prirotities etc. I wonder why.... Of course, if you take Tom's claim to logical conclusion, you would close even more roads, put cycle lanes everywhere, and miraculously there would no congestion or traffic. Hmmm, anyone remember Hammersmith flyover closing...?

Paul Green ● 2027d

Paul, I'm not aiming to be provocative, but we do have a traffic cam at the junction of Goldhawk Road and the High Road, so you can actually see if there are the "constant queues" back to Kings Street you suggest are occurring due to traffic being kettled. Taking a random day, 24 March, there are six photos out of 144 which show a tailback to Goldhawk Road, which corresponds to the evening peak hour:https://archive.tfljamcams.net/archive/Chiswick_High_Rd_Goldhawk_Rd/This was randomly selected as being a recent Wednesday during school term, but feel free to check other days yourself.We also have an air quality monitor on the High Road which shows lower levels of pollution compared to the background since C9 opened:https://chiswickcalendar.co.uk/drop-in-air-pollution-in-chiswick/?mc_cid=a9f2f92e4d&mc_eid=17fab68434Finally, we have measured traffic speeds for the length of the High Road between Goldhawk Road and Chiswick Roundabout. These show that journey times have increased by 2s in 2020 compared to the 5 minutes it took in 2019. Admittedly that is an average, so longer delays later in the year would have been offset by little delay during lockdown, but the delays are weighted by the amount of traffic so that effect is muted: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/road-congestion-and-reliability-statisticsOverall, I don't think the evidence so far supports the large increase in congestion you are suggesting. That said, I do agree that compromises have been made with the temporary deployment of C9 and there is little doubt that the permanent scheme would be an improvement.

Tom Pike ● 2026d

Its really embarrassing how much the lobbyists lie and spread disinformation. Remember, TFL undertook extensive modelling and analysis for the full version of CS9. This told us a few things:* There would be minimal overall change in air qualty along the route. This was despite the fact that 'concentrations are lower due to improvements in background pollution (LEZ) and lower emissions from newer vehicle fleet'. This doesnt make the logical conclusion, emissions would clearly fall without CS9 due to the these two factors* There will be clear winners and losets. Winners ('small improvements') include for example Wellesley Rd due to closure to the south circular. Losers include the |A4, Falcon Close and Chiswick Square. Other losers include parts of Hammersmith and Shepherds Bush Road* There will be NO traffic evaporation. TFL expected an increase in 5000 vehicles a day along the A4. Hammersmith Rd expected to fall to near walking paceThese forecasts were based on the full version of CS9. Unlike Kew Bridge, we get the cheap version which is even worse. More impact on traffic through loss of bus lanes, left turn lanes etc, so more negative air quality.So its all there in black and white from TFL. We dont neeed obsessives with data who desperately ignore the pandemic and try to claim that CS9 is saving the planet. They are liars and they are dangerous. Strangely many of the most active live in some of those areas identified as gaining from CS9. None in the areas that are losers. Remember that next time they tell you CS9 is delivering cleaner air. Its not and it was never expected to. The lobbyists know that but they dont care

Paul Green ● 2026d

On the basis that I have been a persistent and vocal critic of what passes as data analysis by both sides of the cycling debate I though I would read the article before diving in with my conclusions.I have to admit my eyes glazed over at the volume of degree level maths in the article, I doubt I would have understood it when I was doing maths & stats at A level and that was several decades ago. So please do not expect a detail critique of the proposed methodology, all I can do is provide some general comments.The article is an important contribution to the statistical debate about how to analyse the data where there are a multiplicity of potential variables which may impact on the data.It also has to be acknowledged, as the article does, that there are a number of different approaches to the problem which have yielded different conclusions about the effectiveness of cycle lanes.Ultimately the article is not the definitive answer, or more accurately, it is not yet accepted generally as the correct methodology but it is still an important step in getting to a generally accepted methodology for analysing traffic data.The authors are very clear in their conclusions that some of the assumptions they have made may not always be plausible and they do not address "clustered interference" which I think refers to cumulative and/or overlapping effects of a series of road changes - which is exactly the issue that Chiswick faces.Even if the report's conclusions that cycleways have little impact on congestions are true as a general rule it is obvious even from the report's very careful wording, that there are features of the CS9 design which may complete reverse that finding for Chiswick.  A good example would be the floating bus islands which have a much greater effect on traffic flow than more traditional designs.

Justin Stephenson ● 2026d

Tom, when I went to your traffic cam link it took me to 23 March for some reason and there seemed to be far more instances of tailbacks to Goldhawk Road than six. You are setting a very low bar if you are arguing that the test for no increase in congestion is that queues aren't always reaching Hammersmith.I don't drive that regularly but in recent months I've learned to pay heed to the Satnav which, for the first time ever, is consistently encouraging me to avoid Chiswick High Road when approaching from the west and south. In addition we have the almost daily testimony on social media from people living near the High Road that the traffic is consistently much worse.You generally dismiss such evidence as anecdotal but it confirms what was always likely to happen, that the bus gate at Acton Lane and the removal of the left filter lane into Chiswick Lane were always likely to lead to significant queueing.As for the pollution data, it needs to be pointed out that this is a fall in measured pollution not necessarily a fall in actual pollution. The removal of the bus lane next to the measuring station by Ormrod's and replacement with a cycle lane has moved the source of pollution further away which will have a significant impact on readings.Also during the period you cover we have seen the introduction of the Low Emission Bus Zone on the High Road and a reduction in the number of buses by 30%. A Hounslow Council Air Quality report issued a few years back stated that 50% of NO2 emissions came from buses and it would be reasonable to assume that they were responsible for a higher proportion of particulates.Measured pollution was therefore always likely to fall significantly in the centre of Chiswick. In addition the kettling of traffic in areas away from the measuring station has meant that queuing traffic in the centre of Chiswick is rarer than it used to be. However, if you were to measure air quality from Chiswick Road to Acton Lane and Goldhawk Road to Chiswick Lane it is almost certain you would find a significant deterioration at these points over the last year.

Paul Corcoran ● 2026d

John, this is the second time recently you have joind aMy points are that the traffic modelling undertaken by TFL for the full version of CS9 clearly showed an increase in congestion. A lot more traffic on the A4 and some other roads around Hammersmith. And also winners and losers on air qauliaty. So the full version of CS9 was expected to do exactly the things you claim to oppose, and the temp version is even worse.On the previous thread you commented on my post, I made it clear that personally I am no fan of these smaller out of town retail like Kew Park. They suck shoppers out of town centres and with little or no public transport create a lot of traffic. Sorry to disappoint you, that just my view though.As you should know, I am advocating solutions that work for all, including putting public transport first. Cheaper fares, accessible access for TGT etc. TFL's own modelling shows that the real problem in W4 is the A4 and through traffic. You and others obsess about Finally, please remember much 'traffic' is trade, commercial, taxis and indeed those not able bodied or who need a vehicle for their jobs or necessary trips. We all contribute to traffic even when we sit at your keyboards virtue signalling.John, if you stop demonising people you might find that tehre is much we can all agree on. But to do that you need to stop this blinkered approach that claims cycle lanes are the only solution. They are not, and as currently implemented become part of the problem.

Paul Green ● 2026d

Paul. TFL's own air quality report for CS9 noted that the impact of the bike lane in moving traffic away from the monitors would have an effect. IT also clearly stated that a big drop in background pollution would come from the newer fleet, we can add the removal of the 27 into the mix.Its ironice that central govnt wants to introduce bus lanes in the rest of the country at a time when TFL is ripping them out in W4.Tom said:'There was a great deal of adverse comment on congestion caused by the bus gate opposite the bus station when it first came in, some from the same people who now use the removal of the bus lane as a stick to beat C9'Tom, the bus gate was of questionable impact on bus journeys, and was sold as much as a new pedestrian crossing as needed for buses and was meant to allow buses to exit the garage. Few were aware of that being a problem. As a regular bus user, unlike yourself, that stretch of bus lane was vital to allow buses to avoid the very westbound congestion that the bus gate created. It reduced a previously largely free flowing stretch of road to one with near permanent queues, terrible ones at peak times. Interesting here that traffic did not evaporate, despite both the LTNs in the roads to the south and the bus gate and bus lane. Please note one can be against a bus gage creating queues (it was designed to allow buses to exit the garage at the start of their shift, not prioritise buses on the existing routes, but also in favour of bus lanes. I support bus lanes as a bus user.

Paul Green ● 2026d

I appreciate your initial acknowledgement, Paul. If the intent was to kettle the traffic at each end of the High Road, it’s not borne out in the travel times which actually decreased on the Chiswick Roundabout to Heathfield Terrace stretch last year. In contrast, speeds dropped most on the central portion, though overall there was little change. If we were to see pollution from increased travel times, the monitor is on the right length of the High Road to measure it. As for the fall off of pollution with distance, it’s the opposite of what you are suggesting. The fall off is close to exponential which means a decreasing rate with distance. The associated “decay length” is longest for the PM10 and PM2.5 particulates, but looking at NO2, even that would only see a 10% reduction in moving from 5 to 7 m (distances from google map) from the kerb using the laqm tool:  https://www.airqualityengland.co.uk/laqmIn fact the biggest reduction is seen in the particulates, and most traffic on the High Road out of the westbound bus lane is no further away, so 10% is an upper limit and cannot explain the reduction in the measured pollution, let alone compensate for a significant increase due to congestion. That said, I’m not claiming C9 is necessarily the cause of the improved air quality measurements, just that there is no evidence it is worsening pollution, contrary to the claims otherwise. Well need more data to raw more definitive conclusions, but it’s notable that while similar claims of increased congestion and worse pollution were made for the Embankment cycle lane, that route now takes a greater proportion of traffic overall through the City with significantly reduced pollution levels.

Tom Pike ● 2026d

"If the intent was to kettle the traffic at each end of the High Road, it’s not borne out in the travel times which actually decreased on the Chiswick Roundabout to Heathfield Terrace stretch last year."As the Acton Lane bus gate wasn't installed until September I'm not sure how this is relevant.Unfortunately and attempt to determine the overall impact of the changes based on data gathered during the pandemic is doomed to failure because there are so many unusual non-recurring factors.I'm quite happy to accept your explanation of how distance impacts pollution. From what you say the impact of the move would be a greater than 10% reduction because the buses, which were the biggest source of pollution have been moved further away.Also we may be seeing what someone has dubbed the Putney High Street effect. There the increases in pollution have not been as significant as the undeniable increase in congestion. One explanation is that, like Chiswick High Road it is a Low Emission Bus Zone and therefore has a many hybrid buses. At low speeds and in congestion these operate on electric power and only use diesel when they accelerate - therefore, counter-intuitively congestion might reduce pollution.The main reason for the better air quality near the monitor is likely to be the full implementation of the Low Emission Bus Zone which you didn't mention in your analysis.What is happening in the vicinity of the Acton Lane and Chiswick Lane is a different matter. As I write Google Maps is showing significant queues back to Halfords eastbound and  the traffic cam shows queues back to Prebend Gardens westbound. This is midday on the weekend during the Easter holidays. The observable reality is that the new normal at these locations is lengthy queues.We don't have air quality data for these locations and it may be that due to cleaner and static buses even with the queues it has improved from last year but that might be a long shot. As a general rule long lines of static vehicles will mean worse air quality.

Paul Corcoran ● 2026d

Paul, the low emission bus zones were introduced in 2018, so again not relevant to changes from the introduction of C9, which I completely agree happened against a shift in traffic patterns with the pandemic. Still, traffic in London is currently much closer to normal than last year, but we have actually seen a reduction on pollution on the High Road in the last three months.Only westbound buses have moved 2 m further away from the pollution monitors on the High Road. If that were the only traffic on the High Road we'd see a 10% reduction. But even with buses being the more polluting vehicles, the addition of further traffic, including just as many eastbound buses, will inevitably mean the reduction is less, not more, than 10%.But I think you have a point with the Putney High Street effect, and there is certainly a complex relationship between traffic speed and pollution. We did not see the expected decrease in pollution last year when traffic levels dropped very low precisely because the cars that were moving were producing more particulate pollution from tyre wear, as reported by the Imperial College team:https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/26/lockdown-did-not-reduce-air-pollution-from-tyre-wear-in-londonI am therefore rather sceptical of claims that we can make reliable assessments of changes in pollution levels from casual observations of traffic, especially when in the case of the High Road they have been demonstrated to be wrong.As for the broader picture, I should add that I also looked at the nearest monitoring station on Warple Way, just to the north of Chiswick, which while well away from traffic gives a measure of the general local levels. Pollution has also fallen there compared to the background in the last three months, though not as much as on the High Road which for the first time actually had lower PM10 concentrations than Warple Way. This does suggest we are not seeing a displacement of pollution to the wider area due to traffic avoiding the High Road.

Tom Pike ● 2026d

Tom, as for traffic counts, its interesting you always refer to cars. Never buses or trade, when some of the latter may also be cars rather than vans. And a single double decker can carry 110 people in normal times, yet buses get stuck in the westbound congestion now too. As for the permanent version of CS9, there are currently no funds. So it may never get built, so its really very relevant to discussions of the reality we now face.As for pollution, you say:'I’m not claiming C9 is necessarily the cause of the improved air quality measurements, just that there is no evidence it is worsening pollution'This is something a surprise, I thought you were absolutely claiming that CS9 has contributed to improved air quality. If by TFLs own modelling the full version of CS9 would be largely neutral for air quality, then the temporary version, with much more reductions in junction and key route capacity, surely must make it worse. I would also very much disupte your claim that traffic is now much closer to normal levels than last year. Its clearly not. The normal hot spots around W4 such as CHR down to Chiswick roundabout, SCR down to the A4, and generally the A4 itself remain pretty free flowing even at peak evenings. Plus Heathrow remains at 10% of capacity and all major sports stadiums empty. We know these things generate significant traffic and they are not happening. Please point to traffic counts for the A4 in 2021 to counter this?So we can agree that both traffic and pollution are down to the pandemic. So where does this take us? We also know that the new western bus gate was specifically installed to throttle traffic, as TFL acknowledge. And it diverts traffic onto residential roads and Wellesley Road, as you continue to ignore. How can this be good?

Paul Green ● 2026d

Thanks. We actually have borough figures on the transport mode of shoppers, though that averages over everywhere from Hounslow town centre to the High Road, so quite a range. For Hounslow only 6% of shoppers are driving more than 3 miles to shop, and 60% are not driving at all, while for Hammersmith it's 90% and for Ealing 70%. There's no doubt that those coming by car to shop in Chiswick will be a minority, for just the reasons you suggest. As an aside, Hounslow also has the highest reported London borough average of cyclists who shop at 5%, and in this case that's likely to be larger in Chiswick.Parking spaces on TGT were never responsible for tens of percent of footfall. The shops there have several hundred customers a day and there's less than a parking space a shop there. 30 min stop-and-shop parking would provide on average around a dozen customers a shop, assuming full occupancy. There's therefore very good reasons why the change in parking restrictions is not evident as any kind of a kink in the footfall data I've shown. By the way, Councillor Biddolph has some of the same data as me, but has been misrepresenting it as showing a decline in footfall after the parking restrictions were introduced (though she hasn't actually presented the data which would make that obvious). However, that decline predates the parking restrictions and is simply due to the lockdown as seen on all high streets. In fact, Turnham Green Terrace has fared better than most during lockdown, and a strong candidate for the reason is the substitutional purchase of higher end groceries and deli items when the restaurants were closed: Chiswick has a relatively high proportion of restaurants and we like to eat at them. From that point of view TGT was well positioned to weather the storm, and both Rodney at Mackens and Garry at Convent Garden Fish have commented on this.We should be celebrating the resiliency of our local retail, and the very regular queues on TGT are the evidence.

Tom Pike ● 2023d

Hi TomSome fairly interesting data but as ever I am left wondering what you point is. Given that a large proportion of shops on TGT have been shut for most of the year, I struggle to see what the demand for high end groceries from a handful of nice shops tells us. These shops benefit from having some of the wealthiest streets in W4 a short walk away, where residents have disposable income given the lack of restaurants, travel etc. Not everyone is a short walk away or can afford these shops.You seem determined to show that parking does not matter, but its impossuble to infer anything specific from the last year. Many people did use the 30 minute free parking on TGT, myself included. I am sure some retailers there would like the parking back, as a number supported the introduction of the free parking. What is wrong with some balance.As for the stats on occupancy, it is good to see overall the resilience of Chiswick, but noone was asking for a comparision to Richmond or Ealing. Richmond is far more of a destination than W4, with more retail and far higher visitor numbers. The crowds around the greens there and down by the river attest to that. But if the conclusion that overall Chiswick retail/ leisure was doing OK, then what problem are you trying to solve? I though that the closure of DR and removal of parking on DR and TGT was meant to save local retail by inviting in all those high spending cyclists. If the problem is lack of adequate bike parking, then lets address that. I fail to see what is the need to constantly make it either cars or bikes.I know a number of retailers on DR would like access and parking back, particularly those selling heavier items. But my key thought remains the same. Should the retailers and leisure venues you claim to know so much about and to 'celebrate' be allowed to decide what they want, with inputs from the broader community. Did they ask for your input into their future? Why are you so afraid of allowing the community to decide, after all you always claim that these schemes are highly popular.You may choose to studiously ignore the thread I started on CS9 and pollution and congestion, where offical documents make clear that CS9 was never expected to deliver cleaner air and would displace significant amounts of traffic. But a couple of posters there have discussed electric vehicles and delivery vans and their role. Surely that is the sort of debate we should be having, not sharing picture of a bike locked to a planter as if this somehow proves somethign significant. Do local retailiers need charging points and reserved bays for electric vans, which will be coming. Or indeed for shoppers, which would also help air quality and noise. Above all can we get accessible transport in W4 for the tubes. Can we broaden the debate to all modes of transport and all members of the communuty? What are you afraid of?

Paul Green ● 2023d