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I wonder what would happen if you were able to articulate your point without calling readers ‘fools’ at the end of each message.  Imagine if every time any of us gave our differing opinion we proceeded with calling the listener a ‘twit’ or ‘d@ck head’ as our closing argument. Mr Brown, I had covid and I was in charing cross hospital on the red ward with it.  I saw men, probably younger than yourself with no underlying health issues breathing frantically and fast, alone,  with panic in their eyes. I personally had a suspected stroke during the infection and have been left with my lungs compromised some 6 months later.  I am under 40 and have had not so much as a common cold in my life.  I ran 3k a day and would  walk at least two miles a day.  I struggle to walk around Chiswick house now and am plagued with shortness of breath. Now let me explain the theory that this is flu.  Covid 19 does not behave like flu, I have never heard of influenza coming in waves where you can feel perfectly normal one moment and then the next be on the phone to 999 on the floor struggling to catch your breath with an oxygen reading of 89 and then 6 hours later be perfectly ok again with it at 99.  This pattern goes on and on and on.  Correct me if I am wrong, but it’s anyone ever heard of a flu patient being well one second and seriously ill the next in 24 hours? Flu makes you get very sick and constantly sick until you (hopefully) start to steadily improve. I find it fascinating that conspiracy theorists point to academics who share their views when these academics usually have an unrelated MA in folk music and such.  Piers Corbyn is a meteorologist.. that’s right.. a weather man. Try looking into Professor Francois Balloux’s research into Covid 19, an expert and one of the best in his field at UCL.  Admin - why do you continue to allow Mr Brown to be abusive in his delivery of his theories?

Kayte Martin ● 2223d

Kayte,I have no wish to minimise your experience and those of others on your ward and I hope that you will in due course recover.And I agree with your point that the experience of Covid-19 is different than that of flu.  However, the point at issue is how the overall seriousness of CV compares with that of other diseases we are familiar with.  This is a product of individuals' cases across the population.  (comparison of QALYs lost might be a relevant approach).I have been unable to find any quantitative analysis for this, partly for the obvious reason that CV is a new disease and any really long term effect have not yet been experienced.This quote from the Wikipedia article on influenza indicates that we already live with a disease that has long term effects for some patients:"Influenza's effects are much more severe and last longer than those of the common cold. Most people will recover completely in about one to two weeks, but others will develop life-threatening complications (such as pneumonia). Thus, influenza can be deadly, especially for the weak, young and old, those with compromised immune systems, or the chronically ill.[78] People with a weak immune system, such as people with advanced HIV infection or transplant recipients (whose immune systems are medically suppressed to prevent transplant organ rejection), suffer from particularly severe disease.[170] Pregnant women and young children are also at a high risk for complications.[171]The flu can worsen chronic health problems. People with emphysema, chronic bronchitis or asthma may experience shortness of breath while they have the flu, and influenza may cause worsening of coronary heart disease or congestive heart failure.[172] Smoking is another risk factor associated with more serious disease and increased mortality from influenza.[145]Even healthy people can be affected, and serious problems from influenza can happen at any age. People over 65 years old, pregnant women, very young children and people of any age with chronic medical conditions are more likely to get complications from influenza, such as pneumonia, bronchitis, sinus, and ear infections"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#PrognosisIf it turns out that the overall QALYs lost due to CV are of a similar magnitude to flu, we need to question why we are still subject to the onerous and harmful laws and regulations that the government has inflicted upon us. 

Andy Riley ● 2223d

Hi Kayte – and sorry to hear you've been so unwell with Covid and at such a young age. However, it's important to accept that people are entitled to their own opinion. And that there are many out there who share Michael's view that this illness is just another conspiracy aimed at changing world order.On top of this we now have a massive amount of our population just wanting an end to this lockdown so they can get on with their lives.  Young people, most undergraduates, those starting their careers, even middle-aged business people seeing their life's work collapsing in front of their eyes – all happy to take the risk.  Happy to get a dose of Covid, hoping for some kind of immunity.This forum is mainly populated by locals “of a certain age”.  Little wonder most kicking up a stink at anyone behaving or even thinking about behaviour that's the slightest bit different to total lockdown.  A few of them exceedingly more offensive than Michael.Personally, I'm bored reading exactly the same stuff again and again.  I stopped following this 'debate' ages ago.  People ordering others exactly what they must think.  Locals ordering locals exactly how they must behave.This is a world I'll never get used to and never want to get used to.  But I've not been on a bus or train since March.  Haven't even been to Sainsbury's or any of the supermarkets.  Wouldn't go near a crowd for love nor money.I just accept where I'm at and wait for the miracle vaccine to land.Wish you well...

Stuart Kerr ● 2223d

I would say it’s clear to an every day Joe that the reason Covid has the figures of infection and death rate is due to behavioural changes by many (not all) within society.  If we just ‘took it on the chin’ as Boris originally suggested we would be experiencing something unimaginable.  We think we are in a mental health crisis now, imagine if the virus was let rip in the community without the ability to treat those sick.  What would it do to people suffering like that and their loved ones looking on helpless. We can not compare the Swedish model to what would happen here, Sweden’s population as a whole is less than London, and they do not live in as close proximity as we do, for the most part. It’s like comparing what would happen in Suffolk to London.  In March it took 20 minutes for 999 to even pick the call up when I called as they were so overwhelmed, an ambulance came for chest pains and an oxygen reading that would usually have them here in 10 minutes, they took 13 hours to arrive.  I was alone and terrified.  A&e was like a resus ward. It was an awful experience and I am still traumatised from what I saw and experienced. Hospitals became quieter as a cause and effect response to social distancing and staying at home which undoubtably reduced infection rates, and I do not deny this sadly meant people were fearful of a&e for other life threatening conditions. Of course the economic impact is catastrophic as a result. There’s this ‘I know better’ attitude which is usually off those with no experience of this virus.. and for those who say they had it and just had a runny nose, maybe your test was a false positive..  I didn’t require ventilation but my case was still considered a mild case medically.  If that is what mild is then you are quite right to be better off at home. Even the medical community do not value the tests, there are countless amounts of information from emergency medics stating they have patients with classic covid symptoms and negative tests.  We already know the tests are Mickey Mouse.  My personal thoughts are, covid is here, we will at some point have to learn to live and adjust to living in a world which is more dangerous, something us humans are resilient too.. but until we have the healthcare system in place to manage those that want to just carry on like normal we are left in this sorry state of affairs.  South Korea from what I can see are someone we should be looking up to, right down to entering the country you are given a ppe package including thermometer and various other essentials to keep you safe whilst getting on with life.  Not surprising that SK is a collectivist society,  whilst here in The U.K., an individualistic society... a right sh@t show by all accounts.

Kayte Martin ● 2222d

Andrew,I think you are right that a significant positive rate increase per 100,000 may be a cause for concern - other things being equal.However there are multiple sources of noise that make interpretation difficult. Among these are:The Ct number - this is the number of cycles used in the RT-PCR tests.  Essentially this is the extent that the test amplifies the genetic material and is always a trade off between false sensitivity and specificity.  With a high Ct (say above 40) the chance of missing a real positive is low at the cost of increasing the number of false positives.  With a low Ct number (say <30) the false positives rate is reduced but real positives may be missed.  So the FPR can be varied by adjusting the number of amplification cycles in the test.  This may have been done by Spain where a steep drop in "cases" has happened in the last few days.Prior probability of having being infected - RT-PCR should properly be used to confirm a doctor's diagnosis rather than mass screening. This is most likely with Pillar 1 tests, hospitalised cases and clinical staff, rather than Pillar 2 which has included a proportion of people without symptoms.RNA fragments - after someone has recovered, bits of RNA from the virus may circulate for some time.  At higher Ct numbers these will be detected and show a positive result even though the subject no longer has the active virus.I'm putting quotes around "cases" because this word is being generally misused.  A positive result is not a case.  A case is a doctor's diagnosis confirmed by a positive test result.I don't think other illnesses would affect the FPR unless they shared RNA segments - I've not researched this so it may be the case.

Andy Riley ● 2222d