Forum Topic

John,PHE issues and keeps updated guidance for "the clinically extremely vulnerable":https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/guidance-on-shielding-and-protecting-extremely-vulnerable-persons-from-covid-19/guidance-on-shielding-and-protecting-extremely-vulnerable-persons-from-covid-19#definitionFor those who do not fall into the category of extremely vulnerable this study is a comprehensive analysis of the risk factors:"OpenSAFELY: factors associated with COVID-19-related hospital death in the linked electronic health records of 17 million adult NHS patients"https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.06.20092999v1.full.pdfSo it should be possible to support a new policy to lead us back to normality by focusing on the vulnerable with: clear and reliable information to enable people to assess their own risk; advice and support where necessary; and directing our testing resources at the vulnerable and their carers and close family.As for the rest of us I think that by now there is a greater understanding of hygiene, which should be constantly reinforced (let's bring back the "Coughs and sneezes spread diseases" campaign from the 1950's).  It may be of some utility to think of the various cohorts in society and how disease resistance builds in each of these.  So for the young partying, boozy crowd, there is a good chance that population immunity will be achieved, for the responsible middle - they (we) will observe distancing and hygiene slowing the spread that way, for the vulnerable the measures linked to above will be needed. I think you raise a good point in highlighting the issue of the interfaces between these groups.What are the alternatives and what are the health, welfare and economic costs of these?

Andy Riley ● 2244d

I disagree Alison - Hungary was very much aligned with its neighbours in terms of its initial response to covid (my other half is Slovak), but now it stands alone in terms of closing its borders for September, whereas the Czech, Austrian and Slovak governments have all expressly stated they will do not follow suit, and Slovakia in particularly was extremely cautious in lifting restrictions until a month or so ago.How can assume the level of fatalities will rise ?.  It might, but the actual evidence of virtually every country over the last 2 months shows a surge (effectively a second wave) of new infections but with no corresponding increasing impact on the number of fatalities, indeed precisely the opposite.  Clearly if we got to the point where we were averaging hundreds of deaths a day again due to covid that would be a big problem, but at the moment that seems very unlikely, the average deaths count is only going one way and that's not upwards (unlike new infections).Effectively we're already in a 'second wave' and the economy is screwed, and continues to be screwed, despite the hard fact that deaths from covid are now negligible, but the mainstream media is still scare-mongering about infection rates, all we hear about is infection rates because if they focused upon death rates they know the message being communicated to the public would be very different.  Whilst I might not subscribe to some of Michael's theories, I certainly think the government fluctuates between unnecessarily and unjustifiably scaring people, and yet when it suits (e.g. promoting staycations or eat out to help out) the government wants us to know how safe the UK is.  And of course that is driven by selfish self-interest on behalf of the government to try to keep people spending in the UK rather than abroad.It's becoming a joke to keep implementing and lifting local lockdowns and implementing/lifting mandatory quarantine from certain countries.

Adam Beamish ● 2244d

Yes, whatever Steve - as someone who has only this morning posted saying "Yes, 100% correct" in response to someone expressing a viewpoint (and it is just that, a personal opinion/viewpoint, which might or might not be accurate, only time will tell) I'm not entirely surprised by your response.My comment to James wasn't just about this particular issue, as was made clear by the content of my post, but his habit over many months of threads covering all kinds of issues to to turn to childish insults whenever a poster expresses a different perspective/viewpoint.Forums are all about conveying different points of view and respecting that others may have contrasting viewpoints to yours, and unless the thread is about something factual then no-one can or should be dogmatic, but as I've openly told you before (and sometimes we agree on issues and other times we completely disagree) in my view you're he most dogmatic posters there is, which is why I'm not particularly fond of you (not that it matters a jot).I have little time for people who try to run with the "you heartless b*stards" suggestion when it comes to discussions about covid.  I've had a family member catch it, a friend of the family who was relatively old but otherwise healthy died from it.  I have a father in his early 80's who has been through a major operation recently and a mother in her mid 70's who has had both a stroke and breast cancer in the last 5 years.  So there's never been a denial or lack of awareness on my part, but nor do I (or in my view should I) feel a need to justify my right to post without someone like James coming along as though he's in some way morally superior.But I try to balance that with the flip side of such 'emotional string pulling" with the consequences of being unnecessarily overly-cautious in terms of trying to get back to some kind of normality in terms of the economy and the well-being of the world as a whole, regardless of whether people are 5 or 85.

Adam Beamish ● 2244d