Forum Topic

Risk of Local Lockdown

See front page story on CW4, with Chiswick being mentioned due to having a high number of new Covid-19 infections. Well done and thank you to all of those who've been complacent regarding lack of PPE, social distancing etc - sorry but your selfish idiots!

Loraine Pemberton ● 2266d80 Comments

A few people test positive for corona with the phoney test. Oh yes, shut Chiswick down; that'll solve all problems.

Michael Brown ● 2266d

...and corona will be gone for good. There won't be any cases when Chiswick reopens in a month's time. Eradicated.

Michael Brown ● 2266d

Yeh,we get it but how many have been tested between may-june and now july-august with more shops, resturants and pubs open ow We need propper data not just a rise in positive cases and blaming people. Shop owners need to know the full details aswell before they get shut down.

Julian Pavey ● 2266d

is not the rise due to more testing ? whether the testing is effective or pure twaddle is another question . It strikes me nobody has any idea what is going on and outr Ruler dictates prevail . We have been "had " imo

John Martin ● 2266d

The brain-dead walking up and down Chiswick High Rd wearing masks don't help.

Michael Brown ● 2266d

Risk of Local Lockdown if Covid-19 Cases Continue to RiseThey keep saying keep two metres apart, didn’t the Government change that to just over a metre,?Someone’ wants to make up their minds, to many variations in what we are supposed to do. Plus we need correct information breakdown for all parts of Hounslow

Bernard Allen ● 2266d

You just know how this thread will end.

Stewart Jones ● 2266d

It’s still 2m I think, but if you can’t achieve 2m then it’s 1m+ with ‘mitigation’. That’s the case in workplaces anyway.

Andrew Jones ● 2266d

Given that any restriction of citizens rights of free movement and association will impact their livelihoods and those of local businesses, I propose that the Councillors and officials responsible for any policy of "lockdown" take a 50% pay cut for the the entire calendar quarter while this policy is in effect.

Andy Riley ● 2266d

Still no specific figures for Chiswick. We need to know and have a right to.

Stella Ellis ● 2266d

I agree it is unacceptable that the numbers are not present in the articles and by the council. This is the best that I can find ...Positive Cases by Middle Super Output Area 7-13 AugustCranford 6Heston North 6Hounslow West 4Spring Grove 4 Heathfield 3North Hyde & North Cranford 3Chiswick Park 3

Jim Meddings ● 2265d

Thank you for that.

Stella Ellis ● 2265d

JimI just found these stats from ONS published on Chiswick Calendar, they are for deaths and not infection rate, thus the Covid-19 infection rate must be substantially higher."The six units of Chiswick break down as follows:Chiswick South West, 3 confirmed deaths (total deaths during this period – 15)Chiswick South East, 3 confirmed deaths (total deaths during this period – 10)Chiswick Park, 6 confirmed deaths (total deaths during this period 9)Chiswick North West, 4 confirmed deaths (total deaths during this period 8)Bedford Park, 3 confirmed deaths (total deaths during this period – 8)Chiswick North East, 2 confirmed deaths (total deaths during this period – 12)"

Loraine Pemberton ● 2265d

It really should not be hard to publish the figures inc population for each area so we understand the bigger picture. Any references to a spike should be backed up with hard data

Jayne Thorburn ● 2265d

Jim,What is your source for these numbers?I've used the spreadsheet downloadable from here:https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases(the "Cases by local area in England" section)Considering just Chiswick there are 5 MSOA rows to be summed. As far as I can see there have been zero cases from week 28 to week 32 (6th July to 9th August) and 3 in the column labelled "Latest_7_days" which I assume is week 33.

Andy Riley ● 2265d

AR> "Considering just Chiswick there are 5 MSOA rows to be summed."You may want to add Bedford Park (E02000271) to your list.AR > '...the column labelled "Latest_7_days" which I assume is week 33.'No, it is described as: "the latest 7 days for which complete data are available." I cannot find any precise definition of what constitutes 'complete data'.

John Whitworth ● 2265d

Thanks John.

Andy Riley ● 2265d

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=47574f7a6e454dc6a42c5f6912ed7076

Jim Meddings ● 2265d

This data appear to be from a period at the height of the pandemic and not recent numbers

Jim Meddings ● 2265d

Thanks Jim,This is based on data from the Public Health England Second Generation Surveillance System:Details in the information button.

Andy Riley ● 2265d

It is really shocking that the people of Chiswick have to search around for figures! Come on Borough of Hounslow give us concrete figures for Chiswick. If you mention a spike in Chiswick it is very important to back it up and not just scare people.

Stella Ellis ● 2265d

'I propose that the Councillors and officials responsible for any policy of "lockdown" take a 50% pay cut for the the entire calendar quarter while this policy is in effect.'HA! Don't give up the day job Andy! However, can we also add that it should be mandatory that they all have to go everywhere on bikes for the allotted time too.

Vanessa Smith ● 2265d

Hasn't the media as a whole been doing precisely that over the last 5 months ? - I haven't read or heard anyone in the media acknowledge how most European countries have been averaging less than 10 daily deaths from covid for weeks now, all the media talk about is an increase in new infections and people lap up the scaremongering, rather than thinking "hold on a minute, if these countries are experiencing an increase in cases, yet next to no-one is dying from covid in the same countries, isn't that actually quite positive ?".

Adam Beamish ● 2265d

I agree Adam which is why it’s vital to share numbers requiring hospital treatment........if we are able to find better treatments, reduce the fatalities then at least people can go to work, improve mental wellbeing and start to plan again. I think all governments are terrified so almost panic reacting but we really need to get the world economy moving otherwise millions will become unemployed and suffer real hardship.

Jayne Thorburn ● 2265d

I took a member of my family to the heart of Hounslow for a face to face consultation with a GP.Their are other surgeries in that building that were open, and the diabetic eye screening, operating as normal as they can due to Covid-19.But isn't this the area that is at risk of the increase?  Yet some Surgery's in other parts of the borough haven't opened for face to face consultations since March.

Bernard Allen ● 2265d

SE > "Come on Borough of Hounslow give us concrete figures for Chiswick."I don't think they are allowed to do that.Near real-time data on infections at a detailed level was only offered to local authorities a couple of weeks ago, and access to the information is only permitted if they sign a data protection agreement.You need to direct your request to the DHSC which is the Data Controller for the purposes of Data Protection.Good luck!

John Whitworth ● 2265d

"give us concrete figures for Chiswick. -- I don't think they are allowed to do that."It's already in the public domain!The concrete figures have already been mentioned in this thread: 3 cases in the last 7 days in "Chiswick Park" MSOA, which is basically the north-west quarter of the Hounslow part of Chiswick.  That figure is from a Public Health England spreadsheet that is publicly available via gov.uk.

Richard Jennings ● 2265d

What does MSOA stand for?

Andrew Jones ● 2265d

Middle Layer Super Output Areahttps://data.gov.uk/dataset/2cf1f346-2f74-4c06-bd4b-30d7e4df5ae7/middle-layer-super-output-area-msoa-boundariesIt's a geographical area

Andy Riley ● 2265d

RJ > "It's already in the public domain!"It is now (mostly).I was not sure about the meaning of 'complete data' in the context of 'the last 7 days'. This is made clearer in the .xlsx version of the data, which currently states:"Week 33 report (up to week 33 day 5 data - ending 14th August 2020)"And:"ExtractionData includes lab confirmed positive cases of Coronavirus (COVID-19) reported by 16 August with specimen date up to 14th August 2020. Cases from pillar 1 and pillar 2 of the Government's testing programme are included."But it also tells us:"Suppression:Numbers from 0 to 2 (inclusive) are suppressed (represented by "..").(I was looking at the csv version earlier for portability reasons. It does not include these descriptions.)

John Whitworth ● 2265d

Thanks Andy, never would have guessed that and never heard of them even though they've been around for a long time.

Andrew Jones ● 2265d

Lies, damn lies, and statistics

James Roy ● 2265d

Stop making excuses, JW, and drawn out excuses too. RJ, who runs the other line, clearly done you this time.

Michael Brown ● 2265d

MB > "... drawn out excuses..."Okay, to summarise:Local authorities, if they sign data protection agreements, get access to early (near real-time), unsuppressed (potentially personally identifiable) coronavirus infection data. They do not have permission to release this information to the public.Delayed coronavirus infection data is released into the public domain by PHE, but it is suppressed to prevent it being potentially personally identifiable. Fewer than three cases will not be reported at the MSOA level.Question: What is 'the other line'?

John Whitworth ● 2265d

Positive Cases by Middle Super Output Area 12-18 AugustCranford 6North Hyde & North Cranford 5Heston Central & Lampton West 3Spring Grove 3Heathfield 3Chiswick Areas - All Clear

Jim Meddings ● 2261d

So basically alarm bells were rang by public health officials because of three cases in Chiswick? I suppose you could argue that going from zero to three is in percentage terms an infinite increase but to categorise it as a 'large rise' is a stretch. By not realising actual figures when making these announcement, the council is treating us like fools. If there is an actual second wave they have already cried wolf.

David Parker ● 2260d

So there were no cases of covid in Chiswick last week, Ms Pemberton, so you might think that you shouldn't appoint yourself as the  authority to call people "selfish idiots" just because LBH indulges in baseless scaremongering.Oh, hang on. It's despite the compacent selfish idiots.

Roger Talbot ● 2260d

I'm going to play devil's advocate here. We have seen a small increase in infections in the UK since the start of the month but not an increase in hospitalisations or deaths. Isn't there something to be said for letting the virus spread a little in the late summer and early autumn to build up more immunity in the populace before winter? Rather than knee-jerk lockdowns and random quarantining?Quite happy for anyone to explain (politely, if possible) why that's wrong.

Susan Kelly ● 2260d

A good question worth consideration.One objection is possibly that herd immunity is something you either have or you don't. If we are not close to the level necessary a marginal increase in the cases over the summer won't get us there.Secondly, we don't even know at this stage whether infection brings immunity with it.On the issue of the seemingly panicky response by Hounslow to the apparent uptick in cases it does seem strange that Chiswick was identified as an area of concentration assuming they were working of the same numbers that are now in the public domain. Three cases in a population area of 40,000 plus is actually quite low even in the current environment of relatively low incidence. Local businesses could have probably done without the dampener that this would have put on demand.This week the relatively smaller area of Cranford has six case but no warning has been issued.

Francis Rowe ● 2260d

Latest thinking is that infection *does* confer immunity, even on people who had very mild symptoms.https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/16/health/coronavirus-immunity-antibodies.html

Susan Kelly ● 2260d

In defence of Loraine no one could expect to know infection rates  on a weekly or future basis. The outcome could have been very different.Yes, people that jog up the High Road or hold large mixed social gatherings are idiots.The problem with idiots is they don't know they are because they are idiots!

Adrian Irving ● 2260d

what are the xmas rules ?  have they been realesed?

Mike Chisholm ● 2260d

I like yer leftfield thinking Susan..  Nice!Except this game (for them of a certain age) is kinda one hit and you're out!!!No VAR referrals..No umpire giving benefit of the doubt..Just you, me, them and the others v the death lurgy..Maybe take no chances is the better way..  the sensible way...Or maybe not..  Who knows...

Stuart Kerr ● 2260d

SK > "Quite happy for anyone to explain (politely, if possible) why that's wrong."The difficulty is controlling the transmission such that infections only 'spread a little'. Out of control, cases will rise exponentially with the risk that the disease spills over to those who are extremely vulnerable. There are about 2.2 million individuals on the shielded patient list.

John Whitworth ● 2260d

I think it may be years, Stuart, before we know what the best course of action would have been. Maybe we never will. The deaths that result from trashing the world's economy will be less sudden and dramatic but may be many times more numerous.

Susan Kelly ● 2260d

Susanyour absolutley right.  In this country alone shutting done the hospitals etc for several months will be something only in 100 years they can calculate properly.  i think Ministers have done a terrible job here - I haven 't even heard one say the NHS is back open for business yet???  Well maybe I guess its not then.  But they have been hsappy to get on TV every afternoon and tell us lots of other things.  If it is open dear Minister...tell the UK, you may save a life

Mike Chisholm ● 2260d

MC > "In this country alone shutting done the hospitals etc for several months will be something only in 100 years they can calculate properly."The government failed to protect the NHS. Instead, it was transformed into the NCS - the National Coronavirus Service.The Nightingale hospitals, opened with great fanfare, should have been used as isolation facilities to treat all coronavirus patients allowing general hospitals to continue regular NHS services. Why not?

John Whitworth ● 2260d

" I haven 't even heard one say the NHS is back open for business yet???  Well maybe I guess its not then."Quite right. It is far from open for business. Try get any non-covid service from the NHS and you are simply fobbed off. (if you are lucky enough to through to anyone)

Steve Taylor ● 2259d

I went into Charing Cross the week before last for a routine procedure. Although that was being carried out (after a 3-month delay), the hospital was much quieter than usual. Anyone unfortunate enough to be familiar with the lifts at Charing Cross will understand what my not having to wait for one and having the one I did take to myself indicates.

Susan Kelly ● 2259d

there was nobody else using the lift?

Mike Chisholm ● 2259d

No, nobody else waiting for a lift. Unheard of.

Susan Kelly ● 2259d

it must have been midnight or something?

Mike Chisholm ● 2259d

CC is caring for Non covid patients.I also went up in one of the main lifts on my own.But came back down with one other person, and we stood in opposite corners.Its quite like a ghost town in the main entrance area.

Bernard Allen ● 2259d

thats not very reasurring, at all - those lifts are usually so packed you have to wait.  where is everyone?so what about the extra money Boris said the NHS would have - sounds like it won't be needing it for anything the population need - unless your a PPE or mask importer.  Some of us haven't forgotten the ports of Dover contract fiscaso from leaving the EU yet - the Ferry company with no Ferries in case of a no deal Brexit??  Are we supposed to forget these things???

Mike Chisholm ● 2259d

Latest is no new cases locally. So good news. See front page.

Sean Wales ● 2259d

'it must have been midnight or something?'11am.

Susan Kelly ● 2258d

I guess people are still not allowed to visit inpatients so that accounts for some of the quietness, but not all.

Susan Kelly ● 2258d

I think SAGE have finally let the cat out of the bag!https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/24/exclusive-health-chiefs-defied-sage-advice-hospital-tests/#commentIt’s behind a Pay Wall but Prof Robert Dingwall who is a member of SAGE was trying to make excuses for not testing patients before releasing them from Hospital. He said…“The problem is that the PCR tests are so sensitive that they can detect RNA when the virus itself is inactive and no longer infective. It is only being cleared from the body.”“This can go on for several weeks so you would be keeping people in hospital unnecessarily, tying up beds and exposing them to risks of other infections like MRSA.”So the reports of cases "spiking" and "surging" that we keep hearing about should be taken with a large pinch of salt.  It is increasingly looking as though we are at or close to population immunity, the pandemic is over and we should resume normal life now, with sensible measures regarding personal hygiene and protection of the vulnerable - which ought to be the norm anyway.

Andy Riley ● 2258d

Andy,You look into these things much more than I do ... I've got COVID overload fatigue now, but is it not the case that people are still getting infected?Is there not a sample group that are tested week in (the COVID-19 Infection Survey that the ONS publishes datasets about), week out to see how the infection is being passed through the population? Presumably the vast majority of this sample group are testing negative for the virus? What makes you say we are at or close to population immunity? Is it the falling rate of new infections being recorded? Or something else?

Andrew Jones ● 2258d

Andrew,I too have Covid fatigue! But I sense that more people are beginning to question the mainstream narrative so I think it is worth continuing to bang on about it.The PHE and ONS weekly reports are here:https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/911002/Weekly_COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_34_FINAL.pdfhttps://cy.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/englandandwales21august2020The ONS report is noteworthy in that it makes clear that the data is uncertain and gives estimates of reliability including a discussion of false positives and negatives.There are a number of epidemiologists and data analysts who claim that we are near or at population immunity.  Their reasons include: evidence that the virus has been circulating globally since late 2019 or earlier; there may be cross immunity from other types of coronavirus (e.g. the common cold); the human immune system is not just about anti bodies (which is what the tests are for) - there is another mechanism called T cell immunity which may be offering protection to far more than is revealed by the antibody tests. I won't give links as there are many, but some of the names to search for are: Sunetra Gupta, john Ioannidiss, Dolores Cahill, John Lee, Michael Levitt.There is of course no absolute certainty here, but right from the beginning (or at least mid April when we had "saved the NHS") I felt that the mono focus on this one problem was bound to have serious and worse effects elsewhere in terms of health, the economy (which impacts health and longevity) and our personal and collective mental health.  Many have lost sight of the truism that life consists of balancing risks and benefits and that we cannot escape risk.  It seems to me that there are people who demand zero risk - have they always been like this? How did they ever venture outside?Another indicator that the pandemic is over is the fall in death rates to single figures per day:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/(Note that cases have gradually increased from early July whilst deaths have declined in the same period.)And you may be aware that recently PHE had to dramatically revise downwards the number of deaths being reported because a Covid death was defined as any death where the victim had test positive at any time in the past.  Imagine the meeting where that was decided - it so flies in the face of common sense that either they were all affected by stupidity or there was some kind of group think going on.  This was exposed by the statistician Carl Heneghan recently.Are people still getting infected?  Well, the PHE and ONS reporting says yes but with the caveats about testing there is simply no good reason to continue with restrictions on our movements and livelihoods that are known to cause measurable harms. I think the majority of people still believe that it could rapidly spiral out of control. I've given a few pointers to sources and arguments that say this is not the case and that Covid should now be regarded as a seasonal infection that should be monitored in the way that influenza is. 

Andy Riley ● 2258d

Michael Brown ● 2258d

There are, effectively, a handful of people inflicting misery upon the world's population through the governments they own, under the guise of welfare. Simple as that.

Michael Brown ● 2258d

The second wave will come when schools go back and pupils start infecting teachers, as has happened in Aberdeen..The pandemic is far from over. Don't let governments or any politicians tell you it isn't. They make statements purely for political reasons and personal greed!!

Steve Taylor ● 2258d

Thanks AndyYou wrote ...There is of course no absolute certainty here, but right from the beginning (or at least mid April when we had "saved the NHS") I felt that the mono focus on this one problem was bound to have serious and worse (*) effects elsewhere in terms of health, the economy (which impacts health and longevity) and our personal and collective mental health.  Broadly agree with you, the only thing that I find myself not convinced about is whether the 'cure' that was applied was worse than the 'disease'. In years to come we might know, my personal feeling is that while clearly things could have been done better (I know someone whose son went to Cheltenham with a group of friends, everyone in the group got COVID-19 and one of them died of it), going into lock down was needed to prevent the infection spiralling out of control. With the benefit of hindsight it certainly looks like the 'mono focus' was a bad thing.Many have lost sight of the truism that life consists of balancing risks and benefits and that we cannot escape risk.  It seems to me that there are people who demand zero risk - have they always been like this? How did they ever venture outside? Totally agree.Thanks as well for making well thought out contributions to this thread.

Andrew Jones ● 2258d

Andrew,On the subject of evaluating to costs of lockdown, here is a link to an ONS paper that attempts to do just that:https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/907616/s0650-direct-indirect-impacts-covid-19-excess-deaths-morbidity-sage-48.pdfI would challenge their claim that the unmitigated scenario (i.e. do nothing would result in 1.5m deaths).  They are basing this on the Imperial College modelling which has been strongly criticised.  However, it does seem to be a thorough analysis of the sources of non Covid excess deaths.At the height of the UK pandemic in March and April I was in favour of a limited lock down particularly as it was explained to us that is was to "flatten the curve" to enable the NHS to cope.  We now know that policies enacted in that period caused thousands of unnecessary deaths (the care home issue) and there is also evidence that the infection rate was decreasing before lock down was enacted.

Andy Riley ● 2258d

Thinking about the PHE death count fiasco, if Carl Heneghan had not exposed this, we would have gone into Autumn and Winter with a rising Covid death count whether or not it was real.  Anyone testing positive at any time this year and then dying from whatever cause would have been counted as a Covid death.  So we would have been bombarded with "second wave" headlines and further lock downs.  I can't imagine any honest and competent statistician willingly signing off this method of counting so we are left with the possible conclusion that political pressure was applied with the intention of faking a second wave this winter. Either that or a mass outbreak of stupidity in the PHE statistics department.Now that they have been rumbled they have fallen back on "cases" which are subject to error and largely reflect the volume of testing.

Andy Riley ● 2258d

"there is also evidence that the infection rate was decreasing before lock down was enacted."Any articles or references you can give to this evidence?The 3 day and 7 day moving average graphs of new COVID deaths in the UK (as shown on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/ ) suggest that the COVID death rate peaked sometime between April 10th to April 21st, which I think makes it at least 3 weeks after lock down was imposed.Is there a value for the median number of days between getting infected and dying from COVID for those poor souls who have died from COVID?

Andrew Jones ● 2258d

Precisely - the plandemic is gone, long gone; but this doesn't suit the draconian agenda.Is it just a coincidence that things have panned out, and continue to pan out, as I predicted at the start of the plandemic?

Michael Brown ● 2258d

this confusion could easily be overcome...release data about demographics of related deaths ie age and with indication of other underlying conditions.  I'd like to see how big the margins for this data

Mike Chisholm ● 2258d

Mike,Deaths data is here:https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwalesThere are analyses by age, region, respiratory, covid and comparison with the 5 year average.Interestingly, deaths from respiratory causes (e.g. flu) is running at 5 or 6 times those from Covid.  If you compare this years respiratory + covid it is now about the same as last year's respiratory since mid July (about 1,000 per week).  Another indication that we have returned to normal.

Andy Riley ● 2258d

AR > "Another indication that we have returned to normal."I think I know what you're trying to say (the statistics), but *life* in the UK (and everywhere else) has definitely not returned to normal.

John Whitworth ● 2258d

Thanks - I could have expressed this in a clearer way!

Andy Riley ● 2258d

Andrew,I did the sums a few weeks ago on a post on this forum but can't find it so I'll have another go.This source gives a summary of the timeline of Covid symptoms:https://heavy.com/news/2020/04/covid-19-symptoms-day-by-day-chart-of-coronavirus-signs/“the median time from illness onset (ie, before admission) to discharge was 22 days … whereas the median time to death was 18.5 days." Using the the daily data for hospital deaths:https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/the peak for England was 8th April.(I consider the hospital data more reliable than the all locations data)So 18.5 days before 8th April is 20/21st March.Lock down was announced on 23rd March so came into effect on the 24th.QEDThere is a Spectator article that reports a study which shows the same with fancier mathematics:https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/new-study-shows-covid-infections-were-falling-before-lockdown

Andy Riley ● 2258d

"Tucker: When do we get America back?"Aah yes - that will be the Murdoch family supporting your hero, Trump.

Steve Taylor ● 2258d

Positive Cases by Middle Super Output Area 15-21 AugustNorth Hyde & North Cranford 6Heston Central & Lampton West 3Spring Grove 3Hounslow Heath 3Chiswick Park 3

Jim Meddings ● 2258d

Jill Merrett's friend has an idea of what's going on, and has tried to explain it to Jill, but Jill would rather be marched into camp with with the belief that things will turn out okay..

Michael Brown ● 2258d

Hi Andy,I see where you're coming from ... but even taking your figures (which has the peak death rate on April 8th) I think it's stretching it to say the infection rate was definitely already starting to drop before lock down came in.I deliberately gave quite a wide range for the peak of the COVID deaths - if I remember the 7 day moving average peaked somewhere in the middle of the range April 10th to April 21st, while the 3 day moving averages had 2 peaks either side of the 7 day peak.Not saying you're wrong, but not saying you're right either. I reckon the margin for error and statistical varience means that the onset of lock down could well have coincided with the infection rate starting (or even continuing) to fall.Remember some people were far more gung-ho in the weeks leading up to lock down (remember Cheltenham) but others were already starting to modify their behaviour well before full lock down started.

Andrew Jones ● 2258d

Andrew,I agree, I don't think the one example of the UK makes a very strong case for this idea given the closeness of the inferred peak infection day to the start of lockdown. I'd like to see the analysis done for other countries.  That would need some detailed research into their methods of data recording and dates of lockdowns etc.One thing in my favour though is that I'm sure the Worldometer data is the date of registration, not the actual date of death - this means your peak is later than the one I got from the NHS hospital data which is actual date of death. You can tell its registration date as it will have a weekly pattern as registrars tend not to work at weekend so weekend deaths are recorded in the subsequent week.I might have a bash at the paper I referred to and see if I can make sense of the maths.

Andy Riley ● 2258d

The figures that I have show that the new cases continued to rise sharply for several weeks after the UK lockdown started on 23/3. At that time new cases per day were running at about 1280, and rose to a peak of 4828 on 24/4 (all the figures in this post are 7-day averages).UK deaths peaked at 942 on 12/4.  This very closely matched the situation in France where their lockdown started 6 days before ours, and their death rate peaked at 977 4 days before ours.

Richard Jennings ● 2258d

The guilty as hell WHO is monitoring online conversations for ‘fake news and rumours’.Corrupt WHO scammers Online Monitoring Programme

Michael Brown ● 2256d