Forum Topic

Earliest cases of COVID 19?

They seem to be tracking this back to November in France. Link here:http://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20200520-scans-show-french-patients-were-sick-with-covid-19-in-mid-november-doctors-say-colmar-haut-rhin

Katrina Black ● 2358d33 Comments

Thanks Katrina. A really interesting article. 

Angela Knight ● 2358d

I think it's been clear for a long time that the Chinese lied about when this started, and plane loads of Chinese tourists were pouring into London all over the winter. I had an unusually nasty virus in mid January which I thought for ages couldn't have been CV19, but I now think that it was. All cleared up after ten days luckily.

Susan Kelly ● 2358d

Looks to have been in the UK by mid-December:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52589449

Al Webber ● 2358d

The HIV virus that causes AIDS was around for a long time (perhaps decades) before the explosion of cases that manifested itself in the early 1980s, so perhaps it's not a surprise that looking back there might have been cases of COVID19 in other countries prior to the initial surge of cases in Wuhan and Hubei province in December/January.

Andrew Jones ● 2358d

One of my clients who has a house in Northern Italy was not responding to my emails and calls very early in the New Year.  A couple of weeks later he apologised saying he had been 'very ill' with an illness like flu but with different symptoms and much worse.  I didn't think a lot about it at the time but as we had been trying to arrange a meeting a week or two before, think I probably got off lightly!  He is fine now.

Claire Moran ● 2358d

Likewise my sister in New Zealand (!) was very ill with some sort of severe respiratory illness — around January (if I recall correctly). 

Angela Knight ● 2358d

It would be nice to have confirmation that I had it in the form of an antibody test but I fear that will take a while.

Susan Kelly ● 2358d

I don't know why the epidemiologist in the BBC news link says that January was two months before first cases of transmission confirmed in the UK. The first cases identified, because they needed hospitalisation, were at the end of January.

Susan Kelly ● 2358d

You and me too Susan..... maybe we'll all compare notes when the time finally arrives..

Stuart Kerr ● 2358d

Many of your examples above illustrate very well why it may have taken so long for a pandemic to be identified. A number of years ago (1990's) myself and my wife had a "cold" that involved a high temperature, runny nose, choking on phlegm and struggling to breath for several days. I spent two nights avoiding sleep before recovering, A friend ended up in hospital with similar symptoms. We all put it down to a "bad virus" and thought nothing further about it. I have more recently researched flu and virus outbreaks but have been unable to make any connection. I tend to be less critical about "experts" than some ,as I am one of those who don't feel the need to bother doctors about "minor" ailments, but this outbreak is a lesson to us all that we should report unusual symptoms to our doctors rather than shrugging our shoulders and getting on with it because we recovered without long term problems.

John Connelly ● 2358d

I heard that Superdrug were offering antibody tests at £69.Is this true?

Philippa Bond ● 2358d

That's an interesting point, John, but I doubt reporting it it would have done any good. There was a day when I considered asking for a phone consultation with my GP when my breathing briefly became a bit noisy. I suspect she would have said, 'There's a lot of it about' and told me to call again if it got any worse, which it didn't.

Susan Kelly ● 2358d

It is true, but I don't know how good the tests are.  The ones the government are adopting are over 99.5% accurate.  Some of the others that are available are nowhere near as good.I think you need to wait around 28 days for your system to develop antibodies to show in the test, so it does depend on timing as well.

Al Webber ● 2358d

NHS England are advising against buying one of these.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52747112

Susan Kelly ● 2358d

If these were COVID cases how come no one died this early in UK?

John Hall ● 2358d

Good question — but how do we know that no-one died?

Angela Knight ● 2358d

Also that accuracy does not correspond to the probability of the knowing if your result is correct as you also need to consider the prevalence in the population and the number of false negatives and positives so will be closer to 80% prevalence depending.

John Hall ● 2358d

I have a sneaky thought that all this safeguarding/safe distancing etc etc is all to do with trying to save we oldies and "high risk" people (of which I am one).I can feel really guilty that the protection and guarding from Covid19 afforded to me and my old friends is at a huge cost to the country & the World.  We "oldies" have been fortunate enough to have lived long, good lives.  Many of us survived the horrors of WW2, the loss of loved ones, rationing, austerity but we managed somehow - we worked hard long hours, often having to scrimp and save for a possible rainy day.  Small amounts put into private pensions as well as paying UK taxes to try and ensure we had sufficient for an independent old age.  That's not worked out -I certainly could not afford full time-carers or a private care home, I'd become a burden on the public purse.This "Covid19 protection" and the plummeting economy seems a very high price to pay.  Perhaps "they" should just have let the virus run it's course. In reality, despite many of we ancients enjoying mostly independent full social lives pre-Covid19, are past our "sell by date".  I suppose we did cost the NHS a bit as we needed propping up with some remedies to enable us to survive and prosper.  In my case, a group of us all over 75 up into the mid-90ties, had super days out, minimum two outings a week to local  pubs, restaurants, & cinema.  4 or 5 times a year I was able to travel with Blue Badge to the Sadler's Wells Ballet, Nat Theatre, ROH in Covent Garden and using Taxicard to some London theatres with friends up from the country.  Up until last year I was able to drive with friends to stay for 3 or 4 days away break.  Hever Castle stay was magical.    Our activities gave lots of cash to the overall economy.  Now all that is cancelled - we sit alone in our apartments/homes totally dependent on supermarket deliveries, van drivers, and the kindness of volunteers - all to save we ancients.      I am not at all anxious to die, I love my life but can it be right if it is at the expense of the future generations?  Businesses, places of education all must re-open and immediately.  People must be freed from lockdown.  Medical science will continue to search for cures better treatments and ultimately an innocculation.  If we old people catch it, we will have to cope as best we may, meanwhile life can forge ahead for the rest of the people.

Jennifer Selig ● 2357d

There's no such thing as Sell By Date Jennifer!  There's Best Before and Use By.  :)The UK went on paying back whatever was borrowed for WW2 for many years afterwards - until 2006 I think and rationing didn't end until 1954. Lots of people are vulnerable not just the elderly.  The most prosperous years in Britain were between 1955 and 2008.  The debt to America didn't prevent that.  We are learning more about this virus all the time - knowledge that will make life easier to find ways to live with it and minimise our risks.  There has never been a faster and more concerted scientific effort to solve the virus problem and it won't be long before it is under control one way or another.  We've just got to sit tight like you must have done in WW2 until the bombing is over.

Philippa Bond ● 2357d

I never expected to see someone like you write something as depressing as that, Jennifer.Get a grip, girl, say sod it, and get yourself out into the world.You don't walk straight into a cloud of Covid when you step out of your front door.  

Roger Talbot ● 2357d

I think that's part of the problem, Roger. I have elderly friends who've been convinced by the media that if they stick their nose out of the front door they will catch the virus and if they catch the virus they will die. Neither of these things is true. The virus is not even circulating in London at the moment, not in the community.

Susan Kelly ● 2357d

in response to Jennifer, I believe we should all pay national insurance on our incomes as long as we live to benefit from it. If you live long and have good health good luck to you. However, if the younger generations are not to suffer the costs of older people living longer we need an INCOME TAX on inherited wealth instead of death duty. That way, the increased wealth that many of us older people accumulate that is unearned (mainly property value appreciation and share portfolio appreciation) will not all pass on to relatives but will, in part, contribute to the historic cost of protecting the most as risk from coronavirus.

John Connelly ● 2357d

Roger - all very well to say "sod it" - my motto in most cases and I'm good at carrying cheerfully and optimistically onwards.  However, in this case it would be committing  suicide were I to catch Covid19 virus - would hardly be worth taking up time and space in the hospital, I have very low immunity and be very unlikely to survive.      So until I can be sure that everyone I'm likely to meet is Covid free, I shall remain in lockdown.  I'm very fortunate, have good food deliveries, am in a big garden where I can walk about in the greenery and have long distance chats with my great neighbours.

Jennifer Selig ● 2356d

Delighted to hear that, Jennifer! You getting out and about, I meanI too am high risk, but because I also have a permanently massive thirst I'm going to walk my dog down to the High Road; weep at the sight of the locked Big Doors of the George IV; buy lots of fruit and Jersey Royals from the boys on the stall; and come home to watch Minder on the telly.And you stay well.

Roger Talbot ● 2356d

Glad you're sounding more cheerful Jennifer!Back to earlier cases of Covid 19.  Fergus Walsh tested positive to antibodies which was a surprise to him:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52762939

Philippa Bond ● 2355d

It would be great if it turns out that millions of us have had it.

Susan Kelly ● 2355d

I too had a nasty virus with a non productive cough that was commented on by family in January.  Gone before all the posters went up in the Doctors' Surgery. The thread that Sean Wales started about symptoms on here was really interesting.  Also interesting that the loss of taste and smell has only just been officially added to the list of symptoms when it has been talked about for quite a while.

Philippa Bond ● 2355d

This seems like a really important thread.  There are erudite articles online to back this theory (the C-19 has been circulating since at least last November).  I too had an appalling, paroxysmal cough throughout December and January and no other symptoms.  None of the usual "seasonal flu" symptoms either like nausea, headache, fatigue etc.  My GP detected "a virus" in a blood test taken for other reasons but did not (would not) identify it further and dismissed the idea that it could have been C-19 so early on.  Goodness knows how many deadly droplets I managed to spread around over the winter.    Does this aspect warrant more research?

Maggie Winkworth ● 2354d

Within a week of arriving back from our first visit to Latin America in early January my wife and I succumbed to a virus that felt like flu and all the symptoms of dry cough, loss of taste and appetite and body aches. Inevitably we thought we had caught something in Latin America or on the flight home. It was only two weeks later after recovery that we learnt that some of the persons who had stayed in our home over Xmas had suffered the same symptoms for over three weeks!When I then mentioned to other friends in W4 I was told they all knew people locally who had suffered similar symptoms and those who had contacted their GP had been told to stay home to recover and not waste time coming to the surgery.I do not criticize those GPs since one assumes they believed there was little they could do at that time. Yet given all that has transpired subsequently and the failings (over 30 countries it seems have now mandated wearing of face masks and with "testing, tracking and isolating" together do seem to drive the levels of infections and deaths down) the UK has had a very painful message delivered that its response was and remains inadequate.

Joe Conneely ● 2354d

Like wise myself . I had this weird infection which did not seem to be a common cold or the flu.  Thought it was a side effect of my flu jab. Felt I was dying for two days then the cough started  All other symptoms vanished as quickly as they came . Triggerd off blocked eustachian tubes which had to be drained in  February , in Hospital . of course,  not in my Docs.  Apparently the Care nurse and a Receptionist also complained about a weird type of cold/flu they had for a week.  I had been sitting in Church in  front of a lady from the Phillipines  who had coughed  throughout the service . She took the Sacraments from me . I am an Eucharistic Minister in my Church. Could be wrong of course. When testing is available I shall  find out  no doubt.

Beryl Bashford ● 2354d

Same goes for me Jennifer. I have a pretty garden good neighbours to shout scross the fence to. !  . Mobile enough to do my own shopping at the small local shops , so no queuing. Wear a mask and keep my distance. Still walk out and about when I feel like it but play safe to stay safe.

Beryl Bashford ● 2354d

The BBC's Fergus Walsh discovered this week that he has antibodies, having had 'pneumonia' in early January.

Susan Kelly ● 2354d

Katrina, I'm pleased you posted about this, as when I said it could have been here since Novemer, I was called a liar.

Janice Evans ● 2354d