Forum Topic

Punching above our weight

As of today:John Hopkins Institute: 203,043 global Corvid deaths. UK deaths (hospital only), 20,319.10% of global deaths are British.

Ken Munn ● 2384d19 Comments

We need to look at a wider area and put this into perspective.https://youtu.be/UT309TYf3js

Jacqueline Lynch ● 2384d

The figures are pretty meaningless unless they are put in the context of population size. As far as I am aware the UK, even when care home deaths are considered, is not yet above countries such as Belgium, France, Italy and Spain in terms of the number of fatalities. Please do put me right if this is not the case.

Felicity Caborn ● 2384d

"10% of global deaths are British."Yes, because the British people refuse to follow scientific advice to:STAY HOMEPROTECT THE NHSSAVE LIVES

Steve Taylor ● 2384d

That is not correct. See the calculation of the Financial Timeshttps://amp.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab?__twitter_impression=trueUK covid19 related deaths past 41.000

Cristina Bur ● 2384d

As well as reading the link above for the FT's figures on deaths due to covid-19 in the UK, it is also worthwhile following the John Hopkins University daily updates on national figures, which form the basis for most serious press reports. https://amp.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab?__twitter_impression=true

Sue Rowe ● 2384d

Yep, however unfortunately JH only publishes the official numbers. Which in the UK's case "death in hospitals AND tested for Covid19 before" ( so if the person passed away in hospital but hasn't been tested for the virus, that death is not added to the official numbers) Reality check

Cristina Bur ● 2384d

Cristina, you were right to correct me. The number of fatalities is higher in the UK that most countries but I misspoke. What I meant to say is that the data does not suggest that the fatality rate (as a proportion of population/) is much higher than other countries that have been badly hit.  When I last looked at a table of fatality rates the UK was at half the level of Belgium, France, Italy Spain so if you assume the UK only is under reporting deaths then they would all be about the same.

Felicity Caborn ● 2383d

Exactly right - the UK is under-reporting covid-19 deaths by not counting in care home covid-19 deaths and others. A few weeks ago France decided to count in care home deaths and had a short spike as a result. The France total deaths are 22,000 and that includes hospital deaths (14,000 to date) and the others. It seems likely therefore that the UK is under-reporting by at least another 40-50%. This makes it probable that the total number of deaths from this virus is a lot closer to 30k than 20k. I'd also note that for almost a week France is seeing a day by day fall in new cases, cases in hospital and deaths. The UK has been roughly a week behind France in the spread of the virus so hopefully will follow the same trend soon.

Alan Clark ● 2383d

I wonder what significance population density has on infection rates.

Keith Iddon ● 2383d

It must be highly correlated, though I'd guess the more accurate thing to look at is  % of population living in towns and cities rather than person/km2. https://www.worldometers.info/population/countries-in-europe-by-population/Of the large European countries, the UK has the highest % of urbanisation and population density. However, Germany which has only a little lower by both measures to the UK etc is clearly bucking the trend.

Rob Reynolds ● 2383d

20,000+ a terrible price to pay. Thankfully not the 148,000 you were projecting in early March his year.

Jeffrey Cope ● 2383d

Yes correct thankfully its not 148K because the Herd Immunity strategy was abandoned and the lockdown worked.Of course the Toby Yong's of this world will use the lockdown reduction in mortality figures to suggest it was never needed in the first place.,

Matthew Swain ● 2383d

If it's similar to coronavirus in cats (FCOV) and it seems to have many similarities (although cat coronavirus can't be caught by humans) anyone who has over five cats may never rid them of feline coronavirus as they keep infecting one another.  With smaller densities, the virus almost always burns itself out, particuiarly if the owner is scrupulous about hygiene including litter trays.

Claire Moran ● 2383d

'Of course the Toby Yong's of this world will use the lockdown reduction in mortality figures to suggest it was never needed in the first place.,'Pity he can't be locked down - permanently!

Vanessa Smith ● 2383d

If you think the herd immunity strategy has been abandoned think again.And if you think the worst case projections were pie in the sky - think about the FT claim of 41k deaths so far and then imagine what will happen if we have the "easing of lockdown" that the media if fixated by. (btw what is correlation between MP's being ribald Brexiteers and pushing for end of lockdown?)At the start of this month the IHME projected that UK would be the worst in the world for Covid19 deaths with 66k by 4th August. That report got poo-pooed especially by government scientists as being too pessimistic and the counter claim was 37k worst case.Looks like we will have way in excess of 66k deaths by August.Incidently, the same report projected deaths for France (15k), Italy (20k) and Spain (19k) for 4th August which all have already been exceeded.The point is.... the worst case projections seem to be coming true.The lockdown is not working well enough, the number of active cases is not falling enough and we need a tougher lockdown not a softer one..... unless of course the strategy is still Herd Immunity in which case we will see other shops start opening schools going back etc.

Richard Potts ● 2383d

Need the correct figures.Look at Indonesia.  Claimed to have no cases, but then saw a large spike in the numbers of deaths being recorded.  Bet they aren't in the John Hopkins figures.

Al Webber ● 2382d

I see Cassandra exists in Chiswick still.

Jeffrey Cope ● 2382d

Would that be the same Cassandra who’s prophesies were accurate but disbelieved?

Kerry Chandler ● 2382d

I often think that the myth of Cassandra is an illuminating allegory for our times in particular, which probably explains its long-lasting appeal. Wishful-thinkers blinded by prejudice refusing to believe the truth-seeing experts until it is too late. Now where have I seen that story before? This exchange sums it up in a microcosm. Thanks Kerry and Jeffrey.

Paul Campbell ● 2382d