Forum Topic

Paul, I think that the difference between you and I is that I recognise that reasoning that uses assumptions to reach a conclusion is fallible due to its dependence on the experience and belief system of the person doing the thinking. Your thought process is not a mathematical proof and it is also not an observation. It is exactly the same with my reasoning. I reach the opposite conclusion to you because I have a different set of experiences and a different belief system. My conclusion is that the world will be changed by this pandemic and that the value of sustainable transport infrastructure in major cities will be seen to be much greater than it was before. Voters and governments will no longer believe in a small-state austerity mindset that pinches the pennies in the short-term at the far more considerable cost of public health in the long-term. The total real returns on the small-scale projects will be rightly recognised as huge when one factors in the real value of the benefits to public health and society. It has been over 100 years since anybody invested in public transport in London to make money.Pandora's wallet has been opened. The Overton window has shifted. We will probably soon be talking about Universal Basic Income as a sensible and sustainable investment to make our economy more resilient let alone the paltry amounts that you object to being spent on sustainable transport in the one of the wealthiest cities and countries in the world.The other difference between you and I is that I don't think that your reasoning is risible just because I disagree with it. I respect your view and you may well be right, although I sincerely hope that you are not.

Paul Campbell ● 2392d

Paulo, I suspect many of us pay huge sums of money every year for public services. Maybe you pay a tick more than others, but that doesn't mean you are special. Although I question why you bring it up because if it wasn't anyone's business, why then mention it? You just made it public knowledge. TfL doesn't have the resources to protect staff in times of crisis. Yet you think they should invest in something that effectively is already in place. Granted the existing road network isn't perfect for cycling, but it does work. Safety for bus and tube staff is now proven to be wholly ineffective. If this virus should boomerang later in the year, as many predict it will, should funding be spent in the meantime on improving existing infrastructure, or should it be used to protect the lives of London bus drivers, to name one subset? I chose that because the mayor likes to wax poetic about his father having been a bus driver yet he can't answer the question if his father was still driving, would he want him to have access to plentiful safety gear adn protocol.And if the mayor mentions lack of revenue, TfL by definition relies on that revenue for funding. Revenue intake is self-financing. Why would they raise revenue when operating costs increase? No different than any hospitality venue raising costs due to an increase in commodity prices whatever their remit. My guess is taxpayers will shoulder increases to rebuild and improve the NHS. That should be job one. But after this economic episode, there is only so much the tax payer can bear so money will be directed toward only the most urgent necessary projects. Alas, poor Paulo, cycling infrastructure will not make the list. I'm surprised HS2 did. But it creates thousands of long-term jobs after an economic downturn and it builds something that doesn't already exist.

David Lesniak ● 2392d

“Everyone else has to pay. Shouldn’t you?” You asked the question you got the answer. Your short-term memory issue is not the only reason why it is pointless having this debate with you. Your comparison with a hospitality venue to explain the economics of a government-subsidised metropolitan transport system whose purpose is to move millions of people around to make one of the richest cities in the world work illustrates what I have been saying to Paul about the limitations of human reasoning. I think that your belief that governments should only invest in the cure in the future and not in prevention when over 90% of deaths from Covid-19 are people with underlying health conditions very sadly caused often by unhealthy lifestyles and obesity is depressing. Like Paul you may be right but I sincerely hope that you are not. I believe that this is a wake up call and I hope that we will heed it in time to prepare for the tsunami that will make this pandemic look like a ripple in a pond. As we have seen governments can show leadership and have the ability to do what is necessary to value what our one has been calling “low-skilled workers”, to create fairer and more equal societies so that more people can choose healthy lifestyles, to make the hard choices required to reduce pollution and stop us breathing filthy air in our cities, to invest in a health system that is not designed to just about manage in a normal flu season. Sustainable transport is just a small and very low cost part of the strategy to make our society more resilient. But one that nevertheless I think is vital.

Paul Campbell ● 2392d

From what I've read, bus drivers do seem to be more vulnerable to this than the general population.  The question is why that is happening, and that's not so simple.I do wonder if some it is down to air pollution.  Bus drivers are on congested roads full of diesel stink 35 hours per week, more if they do overtime.We know air pollution causes respiratory problems, and they are breathing in more pollution than just about anyone else in the country.I've seen suggestions that the high death rates in Wuhan and Northern Italy are partly caused by air pollution.  Wuhan has very bad air pollution, and parts of Northern Italy have the worst air pollution in Europe - to the point that there were respiratory problems there before COVID 19.London, with all its air pollution, seems to be the worst hit location in the UK.  Is that a coincidence?Some of it is undoubtedly because there are a lot of people in close proximity in big cities like London, and there are a lot of people getting on and off buses.  It would be very difficult to establish all the causes, but I suspect that air pollution will be playing a part in it.The other thing to remember in all this is that air pollution causes 40,000 premature deaths per year in the UK.  The number killed in the UK over the last 15 years by air pollution wil dwarf the eventual toll from COVID 19.  Why is the government not doing more about air pollution?Lastly, changing the subject a bit, a good way to protect yourself and all the transport workers at the moment is to start cycling.  You aren't sharing a bus or tube carriage with a lot of other people.  I know from personal experience that I get a lot less cold/flu type illnesses since I started cycling to work.

Al Webber ● 2391d

Agree completely with the original poster about the article on this site. A very important piece of work done to a very high quality. I saw the Mayor on the TV the following morning and he seemed very shaken. He probably has more to worry about than one negative bit of news coverage but it may not be a total coincidence that within 24 hours the fares on buses were waived.  He did make the point that bus drivers in particular were close to his heart because of his father. However, it seemed to me that he was deflecting somewhat by trying to make the interview about the government's policy on facemasks. He was allowed to talk about that rather than his own area of responsibility. Given the sacrifice made by bus drivers it would be hard to argue that more attention should be paid to this service after the crisis is over. People in Chiswick have rightly been complaining about a 30% reduction in bus frequency on the High Road. It is often overlooked that this also means a 30% reduction in hours for bus drivers and probably resulted in redundancies. The bus service was becoming the cinderella service and locally overcrowding was making it less viable for many people. I don't really understand the argument being put forward by people who claim there won't be a severe cash crunch for TfL after the lockdown is over. The numbers are not ambiguous. There will also be a lot of people pointing out how poor the terms of conditions of bus drivers are compared to tube drivers and how the latter seem to have avoided fatalities during this crisis and had far inferior attendance rates. The tube drivers aren't going to accept pay cuts so bringing bus drivers closer to what they deserve is going to be expensive. Bringing the bus service back up to previous levels will also cost particularly if the low emission bus zones are going to be maintained. Previously a quick expansion of service could have been implemented by the purchase of second hand buses from other fleets but now for many routes brand new electric buses will need to be purchased. Priority number one for TfL will probably be getting Crossrail up and running as quickly as possible due to the financial imperative but buses will rank not far behind. Beyond that I can't really see how anything but basic maintenance can be afforded. Any cycleway project that hasn't commenced is likely to be mothballed. CW9 has had some initial work done and it may be that the funds are already committed but if not it is going to be a lot harder than t used to be  to persuade the Mayor that taking removing bus lanes on Chiswick High Road for a cycle path is a good idea.

Andrew OSullivan ● 2391d

Thanks as ever, Paulo, for insinuating I'm stupid and maligning my memory.I think it's precisely the point that you cannot see the comparison between any commercial endeavour be it hospitality or selling clothes and TfL. If the cost of material goes up, so does the price of the offer. If the cost of labor goes up, so does the price of the offer. When sales are down, there is a problem when trying to pay for operations. TfL has raised fares for any number of reasons, from increased costs in operations, maintenance, upgrading and labour. That funding has to come from somewhere. When it comes from the public, it is transactional. And you feel you are entitled to a free ride on a spiffy new cycle lane because you're better than (fill in the blank) and saving the world. Message received. But what remains missing in your argument is fully subsidized travel for all regardless of mode. That gets you off the hook in terms of public criticism and how money is spent because the offer is then equal to all, not just a few which is the position you find yourself in. If someone could take a free bus or tube ride, then they could avoid driving as well and thus achieve your goal. So where is your support for that option? Or would that loss of revenue mean improved cycling infrastructure couldn't happen. Oh wait. Hang on. That's economics 101.To be fair, you have no clue what I believe government should or should not be doing. When last we checked, asthma is a genetic issue. As can diabetes be. And yes, both can be aggravated by external causes. Ditto obesity. Not to mention perfectly healthy people are dying from Covid-19. You may also want to consider that, unlike you, I was around for another pandemic and by dint of birth belonged to a group thought to be expendable so no investment in cure nor prevention was made. We literally watched people die because the government didn't give a damn. Thankfully that is not the case now so you're spared from trying to square that circle.Lately I've learned local government believes delivering tinned rice pudding is a healthy option, but I can appreciate under the circumstances providing calories is sometimes needed no matter how they are delivered. My initial inquiry to help in this area had to do with providing fresh meals prepared from local venues. But tinned rice pudding it is. So yes, Paulo, I think you and I agree government can and should be doing more to improve public health. Outlawing vaping and smoking could also be a path forward. Neither is genetically predisposed. Both are completely learned behaviors. Your thoughts on that?

David Lesniak ● 2391d